688676 金盘科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 优先复核.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=金盘科技; 证券代码=688676.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=储能系列、其他主营业务、数字化解决方案、输配电设备；产品/服务=储能系列, 其他主营业务, 数字化解决方案, 输配电设备。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的储能系列、其他主营业务、数字化解决方案、输配电设备业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20210309；上市年限=5.37；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=变压器, 储能设备, 电气设备；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

储能系列: revenue=620767063.94; profit=46935077.90.
其他主营业务: revenue=288508877.14; profit=36144970.80.
数字化解决方案: revenue=112445023.06; profit=35997583.37.
输配电设备: revenue=6273265672.27; profit=1766895066.13.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=7294986636.41; revenue_yoy=5.71%; parent_net_profit=659538772.40; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.82%; deduct_profit=609581908.26; gross_margin=25.85%; net_margin=8.97%; ROE=13.63%; OCF=600972620.86.
20241231: revenue=6900859224.75; revenue_yoy=3.50%; parent_net_profit=574421452.41; parent_net_profit_yoy=13.82%; deduct_profit=551140635.27; gross_margin=24.32%; net_margin=8.27%; ROE=14.83%; OCF=-36981276.98.
20231231: revenue=6667579429.44; revenue_yoy=40.50%; parent_net_profit=504660243.92; parent_net_profit_yoy=78.15%; deduct_profit=480765035.84; gross_margin=22.81%; net_margin=7.53%; ROE=16.35%; OCF=204958169.05.
20221231: revenue=4745599395.76; revenue_yoy=43.69%; parent_net_profit=283278076.36; parent_net_profit_yoy=20.74%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-104204036.59.
20211231: revenue=3302576597.10; revenue_yoy=36.32%; parent_net_profit=234617393.01; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.31%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=252868872.19.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1522783694.39; parent_net_profit=112425599.41; single_quarter_revenue=1522783694.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=112425599.41.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=5194303709.34; parent_net_profit=485644896.76; single_quarter_revenue=2040055794.10; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=220684325.60.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=3154247915.24; parent_net_profit=264960571.16; single_quarter_revenue=1811569471.44; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=157718542.93.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1342678443.80; parent_net_profit=107242028.23; single_quarter_revenue=1342678443.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=107242028.23.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=4798550556.02; parent_net_profit=403789511.66; single_quarter_revenue=1882380036.24; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=181326765.35.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=2916170519.78; parent_net_profit=222462746.31; single_quarter_revenue=1611390741.19; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=127823173.69.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1304779778.59; parent_net_profit=94639572.62; single_quarter_revenue=1304779778.59; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=94639572.62.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=4773017639.11; parent_net_profit=333252169.07; single_quarter_revenue=1879641890.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=142177382.16.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.89; non-recurring effect=12419493.32.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-1.48; inventory growth=38.61%; receivable growth=-12.85%.
Inventory=2937567826.16; receivables=2332228899.67; debt ratio=57.82%; interest-bearing debt=3797670688.07; cash coverage=0.54.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=44.66multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=45.01multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.54multiple; PS_TTM=3.97multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=44.66multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=38.84multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=63.80multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 金盘科技: 金盘科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=POWER_EQUIPMENT_TRANSFORMER; cycle drivers=变压器, 储能设备, 电气设备.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
许继电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=60.25; MA5/10/20/60/120=65.98/72.14/77.83/88.01/89.32.
20/60/120/250-day high=93.30/111.11/111.11/111.11; low=57.86/57.86/57.86/34.19.
drawdown=-45.77%; volume_percentile=18.40%; RSI14=21.87; ATR14=5.50; volatility20=4.31%.
support=57.86; resistance=93.30.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 7.17% | 877465.55 | 5265.47 | 0.60% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 5265.47 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=变压器; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=储能设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电气设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

金盘科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
金盘科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
金盘科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
金盘科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=金盘科技: 变压器 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=金盘科技: 变压器 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=金盘科技: 金盘科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=70.38.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

金盘科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688676_金盘科技_20260722