688506 百利天恒 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=百利天恒; 证券代码=688506.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=化学制药；主营分部=中成药制剂、其他业务、化药制剂、知识产权授权收入；产品/服务=中成药制剂, 其他业务, 化药制剂, 知识产权授权收入。
商业模式=化学制药；产业链定位=化学制药相关的中成药制剂、其他业务、化药制剂、知识产权授权收入业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20230106；上市年限=3.54；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=创新药, 医药；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。
历史边界：上市历史不足五年，跨周期可比财务与经营历史可能有限，应以已披露期间为准。

主营业务与收入结构

中成药制剂: revenue=95998984.63; profit=34419883.16.
其他业务: revenue=15684582.53; profit=2998867.80.
化药制剂: revenue=284076355.85; profit=154806409.24.
知识产权授权收入: revenue=2124353400.00; profit=2095489350.81.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=2520113323.01; revenue_yoy=-56.72%; parent_net_profit=-1053617853.77; parent_net_profit_yoy=-128.42%; deduct_profit=-1167890097.21; gross_margin=90.78%; net_margin=-41.81%; ROE=-20.05%; OCF=-798398132.43.
20241231: revenue=5822717804.49; revenue_yoy=936.31%; parent_net_profit=3707504555.84; parent_net_profit_yoy=-575.02%; deduct_profit=3635537540.43; gross_margin=95.46%; net_margin=63.67%; ROE=183.64%; OCF=4058670132.28.
20231231: revenue=561870733.49; revenue_yoy=-20.11%; parent_net_profit=-780498884.81; parent_net_profit_yoy=176.40%; deduct_profit=-812748664.40; gross_margin=59.19%; net_margin=-138.91%; ROE=-143.76%; OCF=-615351111.50.
20221231: revenue=703281558.80; revenue_yoy=-11.73%; parent_net_profit=-282383469.11; parent_net_profit_yoy=182.41%; deduct_profit=-336610867.85; gross_margin=66.91%; net_margin=-40.15%; ROE=-44.62%; OCF=-258649086.53.
20211231: revenue=796731823.79; revenue_yoy=-21.33%; parent_net_profit=-99991297.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=-363.82%; deduct_profit=-154297200.00; gross_margin=75.18%; net_margin=-12.55%; ROE=-25.51%; OCF=-135031192.51.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=94586830.06; parent_net_profit=-774557546.70; single_quarter_revenue=94586830.06; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-774557546.70.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=2065895265.44; parent_net_profit=-494515911.29; single_quarter_revenue=1894697656.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=623436299.08.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=171197609.32; parent_net_profit=-1117952210.37; single_quarter_revenue=103757627.03; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-586516359.86.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=67439982.29; parent_net_profit=-531435850.51; single_quarter_revenue=67439982.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-531435850.51.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5662560246.21; parent_net_profit=4065367515.10; single_quarter_revenue=109832714.73; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-600972496.17.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=5552727531.48; parent_net_profit=4666340011.27; single_quarter_revenue=90604397.20; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-338815354.18.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=5462123134.28; parent_net_profit=5005155365.45; single_quarter_revenue=5462123134.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=5005155365.45.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=377699836.45; parent_net_profit=-515105766.43; single_quarter_revenue=66655963.89; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-186786712.39.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.07; non-recurring effect=55370579.19.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.96; inventory growth=-10.80%; receivable growth=-41.94%.
Inventory=144680069.29; receivables=61961656.27; debt ratio=48.91%; interest-bearing debt=4318275166.05; cash coverage=0.69.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=25.00multiple; PS_TTM=55.38multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=valuation formula:pe_ttm; periods=20251231,20260331,20250331; impact=PE_TTM_ACTUAL cannot be used for comparison; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=valuation formula:pe_static; periods=20251231; impact=PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL cannot be used for comparison; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 百利天恒: 百利天恒 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=PHARMA_CORE; cycle drivers=创新药, 医药.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
国药一致: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST海王: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
丰原药业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
派林生物: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
英特集团: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
丽珠集团: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
四环生物: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
万泽股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
海南海药: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东北制药: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

分时结构未纳入本次裁决。
涨跌停概率模型仅作辅助背景，不作为本次深度报告硬门禁。
bars=320/250; trend=UPTREND; close=336.20; MA5/10/20/60/120=323.94/314.71/304.96/265.09/273.74.
20/60/120/250-day high=355.28/355.28/355.28/414.02; low=226.50/200.10/200.10/200.10.
drawdown=-18.80%; volume_percentile=95.20%; RSI14=61.85; ATR14=29.81; volatility20=5.87%.
support=226.50; resistance=355.28.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 1.64% | 945210.38 | 645.13 | 0.07% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 645.13 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=创新药; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=医药; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

百利天恒 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
百利天恒 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
百利天恒 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
百利天恒 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=百利天恒: 创新药 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=百利天恒: 创新药 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=百利天恒: 百利天恒 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

百利天恒: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688506_百利天恒_20260722