688037 芯源微 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 优先复核.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=芯源微; 证券代码=688037.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=产品备件、其他业务、电子工艺装备；产品/服务=产品备件, 其他业务, 电子工艺装备。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的产品备件、其他业务、电子工艺装备业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20191216；上市年限=6.6；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设备, 国产替代；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

产品备件: revenue=47629094.84; profit=32066739.66.
其他业务: revenue=22161084.71; profit=14945923.76.
电子工艺装备: revenue=1878698082.18; profit=642550832.27.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=1948488261.73; revenue_yoy=11.11%; parent_net_profit=71705148.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=-64.64%; deduct_profit=-18085845.21; gross_margin=35.39%; net_margin=3.63%; ROE=2.62%; OCF=102969693.54.
20241231: revenue=1753605965.73; revenue_yoy=2.13%; parent_net_profit=202811998.36; parent_net_profit_yoy=-19.08%; deduct_profit=73306592.00; gross_margin=37.67%; net_margin=11.49%; ROE=8.00%; OCF=441809413.08.
20231231: revenue=1716969907.58; revenue_yoy=23.98%; parent_net_profit=250626202.20; parent_net_profit_yoy=25.21%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-562876699.27.
20221231: revenue=1384867131.46; revenue_yoy=67.12%; parent_net_profit=200160932.53; parent_net_profit_yoy=158.77%; deduct_profit=137247261.68; gross_margin=38.40%; net_margin=14.45%; ROE=13.33%; OCF=192963939.50.
20211231: revenue=828672512.29; revenue_yoy=151.95%; parent_net_profit=77349494.43; parent_net_profit_yoy=58.41%; deduct_profit=63838961.51; gross_margin=38.08%; net_margin=9.33%; ROE=9.12%; OCF=-218325429.94.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=330586511.36; parent_net_profit=3508887.80; single_quarter_revenue=330586511.36; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3508887.80.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=990266469.06; parent_net_profit=-10049159.58; single_quarter_revenue=281147583.44; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-25973391.12.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=709118885.62; parent_net_profit=15924231.54; single_quarter_revenue=433802461.47; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=11264221.56.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=275316424.15; parent_net_profit=4660009.98; single_quarter_revenue=275316424.15; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=4660009.98.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1104608445.34; parent_net_profit=107638808.01; single_quarter_revenue=411002334.93; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=31499983.96.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=693606110.41; parent_net_profit=76138824.05; single_quarter_revenue=449395161.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=60127831.54.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=244210948.51; parent_net_profit=16010992.51; single_quarter_revenue=244210948.51; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16010992.51.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=1206481033.91; parent_net_profit=220228079.32; single_quarter_revenue=510879088.06; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=84551975.00.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=-2.16; non-recurring effect=11076464.72.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-97.89; inventory growth=48.68%; receivable growth=-25.33%.
Inventory=2700262648.87; receivables=395622991.29; debt ratio=54.06%; interest-bearing debt=1617944352.20; cash coverage=0.86.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=1025.22multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=1008.76multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=25.82multiple; PS_TTM=36.10multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=1025.22multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=891.49multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=1464.60multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 芯源微: 芯源微 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_EQUIPMENT_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设备, 国产替代.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
创元科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=298.75; MA5/10/20/60/120=342.74/369.45/365.84/290.20/240.59.
20/60/120/250-day high=459.88/459.88/459.88/459.88; low=276.20/176.40/154.00/101.30.
drawdown=-35.04%; volume_percentile=84.40%; RSI14=26.79; ATR14=43.58; volatility20=7.33%.
support=276.20; resistance=459.88.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 20.00% | 3252884.53 | 8594.64 | 0.26% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 8594.64 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=国产替代; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

芯源微 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
芯源微 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
芯源微 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
芯源微 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=芯源微: 半导体设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=芯源微: 半导体设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=芯源微: 芯源微 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=367.11.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

芯源微: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688037_芯源微_20260722