688008 澜起科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=澜起科技; 证券代码=688008.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=其他业务、内存接口芯片、津逮服务器平台；产品/服务=其他业务, 内存接口芯片, 津逮服务器平台。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的其他业务、内存接口芯片、津逮服务器平台业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20190722；上市年限=7.0；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=内存接口芯片, DDR升级, AI服务器, 高速互连, 服务器平台升级；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=9557187.23; profit=3073674.10.
内存接口芯片: revenue=5138526265.35; profit=3369415411.87.
津逮服务器平台: revenue=308233331.05; profit=22866609.31.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=5456316783.63; revenue_yoy=49.94%; parent_net_profit=2235569970.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=58.35%; deduct_profit=2021628734.94; gross_margin=62.23%; net_margin=39.03%; ROE=18.38%; OCF=2022020556.92.
20241231: revenue=3638911068.29; revenue_yoy=59.20%; parent_net_profit=1411778923.59; parent_net_profit_yoy=213.10%; deduct_profit=1248290398.82; gross_margin=58.13%; net_margin=36.84%; ROE=13.08%; OCF=1691321506.14.
20231231: revenue=2285738498.23; revenue_yoy=-37.76%; parent_net_profit=450909813.13; parent_net_profit_yoy=-65.30%; deduct_profit=369932113.14; gross_margin=58.91%; net_margin=19.74%; ROE=4.49%; OCF=731249699.11.
20221231: revenue=3672258476.69; revenue_yoy=43.33%; parent_net_profit=1299378059.37; parent_net_profit_yoy=56.71%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=688835385.81.
20211231: revenue=2562017472.42; revenue_yoy=40.49%; parent_net_profit=829137544.38; parent_net_profit_yoy=-24.88%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=680414534.55.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1460718316.43; parent_net_profit=847375292.29; single_quarter_revenue=1460718316.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=847375292.29.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=4057688490.81; parent_net_profit=1632283985.93; single_quarter_revenue=1424232009.73; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=473213606.21.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=2633456481.08; parent_net_profit=1159070379.72; single_quarter_revenue=1411247007.15; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=633744331.75.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1222209473.93; parent_net_profit=525326047.97; single_quarter_revenue=1222209473.93; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=525326047.97.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=2570870287.06; parent_net_profit=978077107.79; single_quarter_revenue=905892497.85; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=384923101.66.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=1664977789.21; parent_net_profit=593154006.13; single_quarter_revenue=927714856.04; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=369745618.86.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=737262933.17; parent_net_profit=223408387.27; single_quarter_revenue=737262933.17; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=223408387.27.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=1525166613.42; parent_net_profit=233757367.54; single_quarter_revenue=597550431.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=151901564.70.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.71; non-recurring effect=243539939.18.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.74; inventory growth=178.90%; receivable growth=59.85%.
Inventory=982272862.03; receivables=619903037.52; debt ratio=4.17%; interest-bearing debt=83023349.23; cash coverage=176.14.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=104.80multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=119.89multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=12.86multiple; PS_TTM=47.07multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=104.80multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=91.13multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=149.71multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 澜起科技: 澜起科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SERVER_MEMORY_INTERFACE_CORE; cycle drivers=内存接口芯片, DDR升级, AI服务器, 高速互连, 服务器平台升级.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=189.94; MA5/10/20/60/120=221.47/241.43/260.31/242.59/198.05.
20/60/120/250-day high=332.90/332.90/332.90/332.90; low=180.25/157.29/125.00/80.50.
drawdown=-42.94%; volume_percentile=81.60%; RSI14=26.94; ATR14=28.69; volatility20=8.35%.
support=180.25; resistance=332.90.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 15.62% | 18811111.10 | 110974.84 | 0.59% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 110974.84 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=内存接口芯片; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=DDR升级; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI服务器; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=高速互连; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=服务器平台升级; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

澜起科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
澜起科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
澜起科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
澜起科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=澜起科技: 内存接口芯片 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=澜起科技: 内存接口芯片 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=澜起科技: 澜起科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=238.07.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

澜起科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688008_澜起科技_20260722