605376 博迁新材 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=博迁新材; 证券代码=605376.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=小金属；主营分部=其他业务、合金粉、铜粉、银粉、镍粉；产品/服务=其他业务, 合金粉, 铜粉, 银粉, 镍粉。
商业模式=小金属；产业链定位=小金属相关的其他业务、合金粉、铜粉、银粉、镍粉业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20201208；上市年限=5.62；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=89372418.93; profit=-296469.25.
合金粉: revenue=26611689.64; profit=16533996.19.
铜粉: revenue=121451223.89; profit=32628261.68.
银粉: revenue=52622592.58; profit=3582191.78.
镍粉: revenue=861705202.00; profit=323464825.37.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=1151763127.04; revenue_yoy=21.84%; parent_net_profit=219187631.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=150.57%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=134712536.81.
20241231: revenue=945310495.90; revenue_yoy=37.22%; parent_net_profit=87475904.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=-370.73%; deduct_profit=73102675.48; gross_margin=20.91%; net_margin=9.25%; ROE=5.62%; OCF=295093125.63.
20231231: revenue=688907455.43; revenue_yoy=-7.72%; parent_net_profit=-32311146.15; parent_net_profit_yoy=-121.05%; deduct_profit=-38143575.60; gross_margin=15.04%; net_margin=-4.69%; ROE=-1.98%; OCF=179720998.99.
20221231: revenue=746554001.30; revenue_yoy=-23.02%; parent_net_profit=153481152.34; parent_net_profit_yoy=-35.47%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-53723650.40.
20211231: revenue=969751803.78; revenue_yoy=62.74%; parent_net_profit=237836419.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=49.59%; deduct_profit=222605824.48; gross_margin=38.33%; net_margin=24.53%; ROE=15.80%; OCF=99828252.85.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=409747290.74; parent_net_profit=71626312.60; single_quarter_revenue=409747290.74; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=71626312.60.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=805335723.32; parent_net_profit=151584153.31; single_quarter_revenue=286789568.30; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=46062604.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=518546155.02; parent_net_profit=105521549.31; single_quarter_revenue=268735105.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=57655379.36.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=249811049.60; parent_net_profit=47866169.95; single_quarter_revenue=249811049.60; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=47866169.95.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=726920978.54; parent_net_profit=85079003.45; single_quarter_revenue=288606170.45; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=30501632.04.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=438314808.09; parent_net_profit=54577371.41; single_quarter_revenue=238427336.96; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=38998552.81.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=199887471.13; parent_net_profit=15578818.60; single_quarter_revenue=199887471.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=15578818.60.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=491304492.62; parent_net_profit=12843899.52; single_quarter_revenue=208296124.64; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-4018281.84.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-2.08; inventory growth=57.98%; receivable growth=76.29%.
Inventory=456281972.80; receivables=324900378.66; debt ratio=29.63%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=251.32multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=442.39multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=23.49multiple; PS_TTM=37.80multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=251.32multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=218.54multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=359.03multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 博迁新材: 博迁新材 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SPECIALTY_MATERIAL_CORE; cycle drivers=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新金路: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
金浦钛业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=134.48; MA5/10/20/60/120=166.14/183.67/216.16/177.92/137.66.
20/60/120/250-day high=296.30/296.30/296.30/296.30; low=134.48/108.59/65.19/37.53.
drawdown=-54.61%; volume_percentile=78.40%; RSI14=10.70; ATR14=21.23; volatility20=6.25%.
support=134.48; resistance=296.30.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 2711664.33 | 5791.07 | 0.21% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 5791.07 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=新材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=化学制品; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

博迁新材 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
博迁新材 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
博迁新材 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
博迁新材 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=博迁新材: 新材料 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=博迁新材: 新材料 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=博迁新材: 博迁新材 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=156.46.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

博迁新材: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

605376_博迁新材_20260722