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STOCK RESEARCH REPORT

603929_亚翔集成_20260722

603929 亚翔集成 Deep Research

当前结论

  • Research conclusion: 继续观察.
  • Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
  • Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

  • This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

  • Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

  • 公司=亚翔集成; 证券代码=603929.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
  • 行业=装修装饰；主营分部=其他业务、其他工程施工收入、洁净室系统集成工程施工收入、设备销售；产品/服务=其他业务, 其他工程施工收入, 洁净室系统集成工程施工收入, 设备销售。
  • 商业模式=装修装饰；产业链定位=装修装饰相关的其他业务、其他工程施工收入、洁净室系统集成工程施工收入、设备销售业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
  • 上市日期=20161230；上市年限=9.56；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
  • 业务标签=半导体工程, 洁净室；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

  • 其他业务: revenue=34687240.07; profit=14656209.20.
  • 其他工程施工收入: revenue=55081044.58; profit=3484985.21.
  • 洁净室系统集成工程施工收入: revenue=4691613540.95; profit=1161078620.19.
  • 设备销售: revenue=125153957.61; profit=26358911.80.

多期财务趋势

  • Annual series (ANNUAL):
  • 20251231: revenue=4906535783.21; revenue_yoy=-8.81%; parent_net_profit=892165279.15; parent_net_profit_yoy=40.30%; deduct_profit=877044483.51; gross_margin=24.57%; net_margin=18.06%; ROE=43.18%; OCF=1665902538.46.
  • 20241231: revenue=5380651966.41; revenue_yoy=68.09%; parent_net_profit=635907950.94; parent_net_profit_yoy=121.66%; deduct_profit=636020244.25; gross_margin=13.55%; net_margin=11.79%; ROE=39.09%; OCF=1601712137.23.
  • 20231231: revenue=3201091943.29; revenue_yoy=5.33%; parent_net_profit=286884319.35; parent_net_profit_yoy=90.58%; deduct_profit=267683902.52; gross_margin=14.17%; net_margin=9.15%; ROE=22.10%; OCF=526069096.69.
  • 20221231: revenue=3039209778.11; revenue_yoy=37.39%; parent_net_profit=150535620.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=503.67%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=266330441.66.
  • 20211231: revenue=2212108116.23; revenue_yoy=138.02%; parent_net_profit=24936542.14; parent_net_profit_yoy=-175.71%; deduct_profit=11628851.81; gross_margin=7.89%; net_margin=1.16%; ROE=2.41%; OCF=44913036.67.
  • Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
  • 20260331 cumulative: revenue=1130437772.48; parent_net_profit=247952192.27; single_quarter_revenue=1130437772.48; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=247952192.27.
  • 20250930 cumulative: revenue=3108692913.76; parent_net_profit=442487899.71; single_quarter_revenue=1425418098.70; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=281589473.60.
  • 20250630 cumulative: revenue=1683274815.06; parent_net_profit=160898426.11; single_quarter_revenue=848271281.45; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=78907490.28.
  • 20250331 cumulative: revenue=835003533.61; parent_net_profit=81990935.83; single_quarter_revenue=835003533.61; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=81990935.83.
  • 20240930 cumulative: revenue=4417732547.89; parent_net_profit=439055228.12; single_quarter_revenue=1567319661.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=201743240.14.
  • 20240630 cumulative: revenue=2850412886.61; parent_net_profit=237311987.98; single_quarter_revenue=1754174806.96; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=120475316.25.
  • 20240331 cumulative: revenue=1096238079.65; parent_net_profit=116836671.73; single_quarter_revenue=1096238079.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=116836671.73.
  • 20230930 cumulative: revenue=1815701677.79; parent_net_profit=228531847.21; single_quarter_revenue=884380075.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=154352534.54.

盈利能力

  • Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

  • OCF/parent profit=-0.95; inventory growth=36.80%; receivable growth=35.58%.
  • Inventory=11421038.82; receivables=823193856.30; debt ratio=54.72%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

  • PE_TTM_ACTUAL=40.56multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=40.56multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=15.70multiple; PS_TTM=7.37multiple.
  • VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
  • Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

  • CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=40.56multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
  • NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=35.27multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
  • CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=57.94multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

  • Bear case / counterevidence: 亚翔集成: 亚翔集成 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

  • Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_INFRA_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体工程, 洁净室.

直接同行对比

  • DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
  • *ST美丽: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 深桑达A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 北方国际: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 天健集团: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 山东路桥: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 创元科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 高新发展: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 甘咨询: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 冀东装备: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
  • No extended peer context is available.

技术面

  • bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=154.17; MA5/10/20/60/120=187.13/200.92/223.61/200.68/180.79.
  • 20/60/120/250-day high=285.00/285.00/285.00/285.00; low=154.17/144.11/126.50/34.43.
  • drawdown=-45.91%; volume_percentile=79.60%; RSI14=11.53; ATR14=20.88; volatility20=5.85%.
  • support=154.17; resistance=285.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 1378952.91 | -8053.99 | -0.58% |

  • 1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -8053.99 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
  • Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

  • No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

  • No structured announcement item is available.
  • Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

  • catalyst=半导体工程; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
  • catalyst=洁净室; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

  • 亚翔集成 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
  • 亚翔集成 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
  • 亚翔集成 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
  • 亚翔集成 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新 需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

  • Bull case=亚翔集成: 半导体工程 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=亚翔集成: 半导体工程 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=亚翔集成: 亚翔集成 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

  • Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金持续派发，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=177.18.

仓位与执行约束

  • Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

  • CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

  • 亚翔集成: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

  • Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

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