603799 华友钴业 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 周期位置观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=华友钴业; 证券代码=603799.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=小金属；主营分部=三元前驱体、其他业务、其他主营业务、正极材料、钴产品；产品/服务=三元前驱体, 其他业务, 其他主营业务, 正极材料, 钴产品, 铜产品, 锂产品, 镍中间品, 镍矿产品。
商业模式=小金属；产业链定位=小金属相关的三元前驱体、其他业务、其他主营业务、正极材料、钴产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20150129；上市年限=11.47；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=锂电材料, 钴；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

三元前驱体: revenue=4485832779.88; profit=755217116.88.
其他业务: revenue=1180140862.17; profit=454629500.03.
其他主营业务: revenue=9709262114.19; profit=428679579.38.
正极材料: revenue=14968853933.49; profit=1401086826.26.
钴产品: revenue=5030477998.31; profit=1850155081.10.
铜产品: revenue=4527204520.71; profit=1177533683.46.
锂产品: revenue=3440717918.92; profit=710364587.56.
镍中间品: revenue=11780920226.62; profit=2275813742.22.
镍矿产品: revenue=25895263715.39; profit=5100087162.99.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=81018674069.68; revenue_yoy=32.94%; parent_net_profit=6110378757.84; parent_net_profit_yoy=47.07%; deduct_profit=5792932025.41; gross_margin=17.47%; net_margin=9.28%; ROE=14.34%; OCF=4011961997.48.
20241231: revenue=60945563720.14; revenue_yoy=-8.08%; parent_net_profit=4154825193.75; parent_net_profit_yoy=23.99%; deduct_profit=3795092102.46; gross_margin=17.23%; net_margin=8.46%; ROE=11.67%; OCF=12431110882.70.
20231231: revenue=66304047529.81; revenue_yoy=5.19%; parent_net_profit=3350891340.06; parent_net_profit_yoy=-14.30%; deduct_profit=3092830789.90; gross_margin=14.11%; net_margin=6.79%; ROE=11.14%; OCF=3485888093.33.
20221231: revenue=63033785499.49; revenue_yoy=78.48%; parent_net_profit=3909880668.82; parent_net_profit_yoy=0.32%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2913806375.38.
20211231: revenue=35316548999.96; revenue_yoy=66.69%; parent_net_profit=3897503525.74; parent_net_profit_yoy=234.59%; deduct_profit=3853492711.70; gross_margin=20.35%; net_margin=11.39%; ROE=26.60%; OCF=-61708589.68.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=25803754637.51; parent_net_profit=2497278226.82; single_quarter_revenue=25803754637.51; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2497278226.82.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=58940761142.15; parent_net_profit=4216211146.73; single_quarter_revenue=21744247029.37; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1505275038.20.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=37196514112.78; parent_net_profit=2710936108.53; single_quarter_revenue=19354528743.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1458827067.25.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=17841985369.46; parent_net_profit=1252109041.28; single_quarter_revenue=17841985369.46; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1252109041.28.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=45488186407.32; parent_net_profit=3020370672.11; single_quarter_revenue=15437871842.91; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1349638540.94.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=30050314564.41; parent_net_profit=1670732131.17; single_quarter_revenue=15087665307.10; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1148316737.01.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=14962649257.31; parent_net_profit=522415394.16; single_quarter_revenue=14962649257.31; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=522415394.16.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=51091095666.88; parent_net_profit=3013180644.02; single_quarter_revenue=17745558147.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=928075701.36.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.83; non-recurring effect=426910425.38.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.47; inventory growth=75.24%; receivable growth=69.88%.
Inventory=30311088375.86; receivables=11555514942.55; debt ratio=63.57%; interest-bearing debt=61797984944.17; cash coverage=0.36.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=10.18multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=12.25multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=1.48multiple; PS_TTM=0.84multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=10.18multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=8.85multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=14.54multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 华友钴业: 华友钴业 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=NEW_ENERGY_MATERIAL_CORE; cycle drivers=锂电材料, 钴.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
新金路: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
金浦钛业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
钒钛股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
合金投资: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
英力特: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中钨高新: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
博源化工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
亚太实业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
滨海能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
双环科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=36.21; MA5/10/20/60/120=38.66/40.40/44.45/53.26/60.52.
20/60/120/250-day high=55.50/70.85/82.17/82.17; low=35.58/35.58/35.58/35.58.
drawdown=-55.93%; volume_percentile=9.20%; RSI14=12.92; ATR14=2.06; volatility20=3.14%.
support=35.58; resistance=55.50.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 9.17% | 4262397.88 | 26202.78 | 0.61% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 26202.78 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=锂电材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=钴; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

华友钴业 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
华友钴业 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
华友钴业 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
华友钴业 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=华友钴业: 锂电材料 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=华友钴业: 锂电材料 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=华友钴业: 华友钴业 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=39.87.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

华友钴业: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

603799_华友钴业_20260722