603650 彤程新材 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=彤程新材; 证券代码=603650.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=化工原料；主营分部=其他业务、其他贸易类电子产品、自产其他产品、自产可降解产品、自产电子材料产品；产品/服务=其他业务, 其他贸易类电子产品, 自产其他产品, 自产可降解产品, 自产电子材料产品, 自产酚醛树脂, 贸易类其他。
商业模式=化工原料；产业链定位=化工原料相关的其他业务、其他贸易类电子产品、自产其他产品、自产可降解产品、自产电子材料产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20180627；上市年限=8.07；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=9590586.09; profit=5088043.48.
其他贸易类电子产品: revenue=64086394.08; profit=6566722.94.
自产其他产品: revenue=310523974.87; profit=53515193.53.
自产可降解产品: revenue=106465249.17; profit=-24812215.18.
自产电子材料产品: revenue=921529378.38; profit=274480459.13.
自产酚醛树脂: revenue=1681953869.87; profit=448025013.72.
贸易类其他: revenue=334657025.97; profit=66786334.30.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=3428806478.43; revenue_yoy=4.85%; parent_net_profit=562549729.93; parent_net_profit_yoy=8.86%; deduct_profit=538968319.13; gross_margin=24.20%; net_margin=16.84%; ROE=14.92%; OCF=338237454.88.
20241231: revenue=3270275408.56; revenue_yoy=11.10%; parent_net_profit=516772711.94; parent_net_profit_yoy=27.10%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=242595926.34.
20231231: revenue=2943518541.50; revenue_yoy=17.74%; parent_net_profit=406598516.96; parent_net_profit_yoy=36.37%; deduct_profit=386403668.57; gross_margin=23.68%; net_margin=13.73%; ROE=12.61%; OCF=184124490.21.
20221231: revenue=2500051845.56; revenue_yoy=8.30%; parent_net_profit=298151454.92; parent_net_profit_yoy=-8.70%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=102745006.75.
20211231: revenue=2308359691.00; revenue_yoy=12.83%; parent_net_profit=326578639.27; parent_net_profit_yoy=-20.44%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=344716343.23.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1048768710.01; parent_net_profit=182301581.09; single_quarter_revenue=1048768710.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=182301581.09.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=2523424551.03; parent_net_profit=494072774.34; single_quarter_revenue=868772878.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=143163889.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=1654651672.13; parent_net_profit=350908885.34; single_quarter_revenue=798606055.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=190759938.54.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=856045616.23; parent_net_profit=160148946.80; single_quarter_revenue=856045616.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=160148946.80.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=2424952336.85; parent_net_profit=438576763.63; single_quarter_revenue=848599544.87; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=125460625.66.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=1576352791.98; parent_net_profit=313116137.97; single_quarter_revenue=793925949.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=168732375.11.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=782426842.55; parent_net_profit=144383762.86; single_quarter_revenue=782426842.55; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=144383762.86.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=2195539559.31; parent_net_profit=349993950.19; single_quarter_revenue=826157667.14; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=126890795.81.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.12; inventory growth=18.62%; receivable growth=20.34%.
Inventory=576770010.98; receivables=941539125.06; debt ratio=54.20%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=72.83multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=72.83multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=9.79multiple; PS_TTM=11.95multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=72.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=63.33multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=104.04multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 彤程新材: 彤程新材 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SPECIALTY_MATERIAL_CORE; cycle drivers=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新金路: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
金浦钛业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=60.75; MA5/10/20/60/120=70.31/77.14/81.90/65.87/60.50.
20/60/120/250-day high=102.28/102.28/102.28/102.28; low=60.75/49.85/47.08/31.51.
drawdown=-40.60%; volume_percentile=82.00%; RSI14=20.46; ATR14=8.04; volatility20=6.37%.
support=60.75; resistance=102.28.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 9.46% | 1926542.43 | 8651.20 | 0.45% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 8651.20 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=新材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=化学制品; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

彤程新材 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
彤程新材 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
彤程新材 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
彤程新材 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=彤程新材: 新材料 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=彤程新材: 新材料 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=彤程新材: 彤程新材 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=67.84.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

彤程新材: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

603650_彤程新材_20260722