601088 中国神华 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 低频配置观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中国神华; 证券代码=601088.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=煤炭开采；主营分部=其他业务、发电收入、煤化工、煤炭收入、运输收入；产品/服务=其他业务, 发电收入, 煤化工, 煤炭收入, 运输收入。
商业模式=煤炭开采；产业链定位=煤炭开采相关的其他业务、发电收入、煤化工、煤炭收入、运输收入业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20071009；上市年限=18.78；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=高股息防守；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=13677000000.00; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
发电收入: revenue=82708000000.00; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
煤化工: revenue=5087000000.00; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
煤炭收入: revenue=178342000000.00; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
运输收入: revenue=15102000000.00; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=294916000000.00; revenue_yoy=-12.84%; parent_net_profit=52849000000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-9.92%; deduct_profit=48589000000.00; gross_margin=35.08%; net_margin=21.29%; ROE=12.64%; OCF=75059000000.00.
20241231: revenue=338375000000.00; revenue_yoy=-1.37%; parent_net_profit=58671000000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-1.71%; deduct_profit=60125000000.00; gross_margin=34.04%; net_margin=20.35%; ROE=14.04%; OCF=93348000000.00.
20231231: revenue=343074000000.00; revenue_yoy=-0.42%; parent_net_profit=59694000000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-14.26%; deduct_profit=62868000000.00; gross_margin=35.90%; net_margin=20.29%; ROE=14.88%; OCF=89687000000.00.
20221231: revenue=344533000000.00; revenue_yoy=2.78%; parent_net_profit=69626000000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=38.51%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=109734000000.00.
20211231: revenue=335216000000.00; revenue_yoy=43.71%; parent_net_profit=50269000000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=28.34%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=94575000000.00.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=70397000000.00; parent_net_profit=10667000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=70397000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=10667000000.00.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=213151000000.00; parent_net_profit=39052000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=75042000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=14411000000.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=138109000000.00; parent_net_profit=24641000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=68524000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=12692000000.00.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=69585000000.00; parent_net_profit=11949000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=69585000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=11949000000.00.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=253899000000.00; parent_net_profit=46074000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=85821000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16570000000.00.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=168078000000.00; parent_net_profit=29504000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=80431000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=13620000000.00.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=87647000000.00; parent_net_profit=15884000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=87647000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=15884000000.00.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=252467000000.00; parent_net_profit=48269000000.00; single_quarter_revenue=83025000000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=14990000000.00.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.63; inventory growth=-13.54%; receivable growth=6.75%.
Inventory=10792000000.00; receivables=13308000000.00; debt ratio=29.03%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=18.51multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=18.51multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=2.39multiple; PS_TTM=3.32multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=18.51multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=16.09multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=26.44multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中国神华: 中国神华 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=DIVIDEND_DEFENSIVE_CORE; cycle drivers=高股息防守.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
平安银行: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘肃能化: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新大洲A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
韶能股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
湖南发展: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘肃能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
湖北能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
冀中能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
山西焦煤: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
闽东电力: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=46.14; MA5/10/20/60/120=44.09/43.13/41.64/44.67/44.77.
20/60/120/250-day high=46.14/51.18/51.18/51.18; low=38.73/38.73/38.73/36.80.
drawdown=-9.85%; volume_percentile=91.20%; RSI14=89.98; ATR14=1.44; volatility20=1.82%.
support=38.73; resistance=46.14.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | -2.25% | 2812898.50 | -22765.73 | -0.81% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -22765.73 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=高股息防守; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中国神华 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中国神华 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中国神华 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中国神华 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中国神华: 高股息防守 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中国神华: 高股息防守 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中国神华: 中国神华 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中国神华: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

601088_中国神华_20260722