600900 长江电力 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 低频配置观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=长江电力; 证券代码=600900.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=水力发电；主营分部=其他业务、其他主营业务、境内水电行业；产品/服务=其他业务, 其他主营业务, 境内水电行业。
商业模式=水力发电；产业链定位=水力发电相关的其他业务、其他主营业务、境内水电行业业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20031118；上市年限=22.67；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=高股息防守；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=257000466.97; profit=147810943.37.
其他主营业务: revenue=10323376439.80; profit=3256304057.99.
境内水电行业: revenue=75661563315.43; profit=49779985186.07.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=86241940222.20; revenue_yoy=2.07%; parent_net_profit=34502809176.39; parent_net_profit_yoy=6.17%; deduct_profit=33445575299.94; gross_margin=61.67%; net_margin=40.52%; ROE=15.99%; OCF=60562925570.41.
20241231: revenue=84491870566.52; revenue_yoy=8.17%; parent_net_profit=32496172808.65; parent_net_profit_yoy=19.30%; deduct_profit=32507551977.06; gross_margin=59.13%; net_margin=38.97%; ROE=15.79%; OCF=59648468284.22.
20231231: revenue=78111573265.75; revenue_yoy=50.04%; parent_net_profit=27238970860.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=27.83%; deduct_profit=27508231223.76; gross_margin=57.83%; net_margin=35.79%; ROE=14.08%; OCF=64718720441.75.
20221231: revenue=52060482557.85; revenue_yoy=-6.44%; parent_net_profit=21309033980.94; parent_net_profit_yoy=-18.89%; deduct_profit=21392344535.58; gross_margin=57.29%; net_margin=41.58%; ROE=11.63%; OCF=30912732230.12.
20211231: revenue=55646253991.83; revenue_yoy=-3.70%; parent_net_profit=26272998503.24; parent_net_profit_yoy=-0.09%; deduct_profit=24141419619.03; gross_margin=62.06%; net_margin=47.60%; ROE=14.88%; OCF=35732461733.26.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=18111540767.50; parent_net_profit=6761006898.48; single_quarter_revenue=18111540767.50; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=6761006898.48.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=65741285681.72; parent_net_profit=28192874494.95; single_quarter_revenue=29043671615.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=15136522021.40.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=36697614066.72; parent_net_profit=13056352473.55; single_quarter_revenue=19682330288.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=7875566875.68.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=17015283778.59; parent_net_profit=5180785597.87; single_quarter_revenue=17015283778.59; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=5180785597.87.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=66330680745.55; parent_net_profit=28024923212.82; single_quarter_revenue=31522370743.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16662597995.07.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=34808310002.13; parent_net_profit=11362325217.75; single_quarter_revenue=19167409511.70; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=7395474393.44.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=15640900490.43; parent_net_profit=3966850824.31; single_quarter_revenue=15640900490.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3966850824.31.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=57855135654.42; parent_net_profit=21523845844.96; single_quarter_revenue=26880240634.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=12641778084.74.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.92; non-recurring effect=523674647.13.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.73; inventory growth=30.95%; receivable growth=-8.22%.
Inventory=840650353.26; receivables=8559518872.60; debt ratio=57.33%; interest-bearing debt=289636327131.39; cash coverage=0.03.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=19.48multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=20.37multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.08multiple; PS_TTM=8.05multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=19.48multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=16.94multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=27.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 长江电力: 长江电力 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=DIVIDEND_DEFENSIVE_CORE; cycle drivers=高股息防守.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
平安银行: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘肃能化: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新大洲A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
韶能股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
湖南发展: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘肃能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
湖北能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
冀中能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
山西焦煤: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
闽东电力: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=UPTREND; close=28.98; MA5/10/20/60/120=28.49/28.19/27.47/27.29/26.98.
20/60/120/250-day high=28.98/28.98/28.98/30.79; low=26.15/26.15/25.38/25.38.
drawdown=-5.88%; volume_percentile=98.40%; RSI14=81.30; ATR14=0.60; volatility20=1.22%.
support=26.15; resistance=28.98.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | -0.86% | 7372431.51 | 45801.38 | 0.62% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 45801.38 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=高股息防守; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

长江电力 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
长江电力 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
长江电力 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
长江电力 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=长江电力: 高股息防守 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=长江电力: 高股息防守 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=长江电力: 长江电力 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

长江电力: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600900_长江电力_20260722