600547 山东黄金 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 避险配置观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=山东黄金; 证券代码=600547.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=黄金；主营分部=其他主营业务、外购合质金、小金条、自产金、贸易；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 外购合质金, 小金条, 自产金, 贸易。
商业模式=黄金；产业链定位=黄金相关的其他主营业务、外购合质金、小金条、自产金、贸易业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20030828；上市年限=22.9；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=黄金；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=2343718185.77; profit=1198893448.75.
外购合质金: revenue=43193097874.88; profit=346897146.63.
小金条: revenue=10376179655.23; profit=236493658.88.
自产金: revenue=38395834507.41; profit=19417516741.26.
贸易: revenue=9978561359.83; profit=137939221.43.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=104287391583.12; revenue_yoy=26.38%; parent_net_profit=4739393120.72; parent_net_profit_yoy=60.57%; deduct_profit=4993016202.63; gross_margin=20.46%; net_margin=6.35%; ROE=11.46%; OCF=21492754843.56.
20241231: revenue=82517993538.30; revenue_yoy=39.21%; parent_net_profit=2951551189.32; parent_net_profit_yoy=26.80%; deduct_profit=2991496941.24; gross_margin=16.50%; net_margin=5.38%; ROE=8.33%; OCF=13339797529.06.
20231231: revenue=59275274514.67; revenue_yoy=17.83%; parent_net_profit=2327750542.04; parent_net_profit_yoy=86.84%; deduct_profit=2213428334.93; gross_margin=16.60%; net_margin=4.88%; ROE=7.06%; OCF=6848761658.51.
20221231: revenue=50305754258.45; revenue_yoy=48.24%; parent_net_profit=1245858630.24; parent_net_profit_yoy=-743.23%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2971775379.32.
20211231: revenue=33934960452.94; revenue_yoy=-46.70%; parent_net_profit=-193687290.91; parent_net_profit_yoy=-108.58%; deduct_profit=-552943263.36; gross_margin=10.56%; net_margin=-0.58%; ROE=-0.67%; OCF=1822242735.09.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=32515977242.33; parent_net_profit=1445657595.58; single_quarter_revenue=32515977242.33; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1445657595.58.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=83783174059.44; parent_net_profit=3956143645.85; single_quarter_revenue=27017278703.76; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1147985784.92.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=56765895355.68; parent_net_profit=2808157860.93; single_quarter_revenue=30830431139.97; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1781949305.30.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=25935464215.71; parent_net_profit=1026208555.63; single_quarter_revenue=25935464215.71; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1026208555.63.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=67005642863.49; parent_net_profit=2065816231.17; single_quarter_revenue=21232148165.44; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=682349948.18.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=45773494698.05; parent_net_profit=1383466282.99; single_quarter_revenue=26816224600.44; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=683575661.92.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=18957270097.61; parent_net_profit=699890621.07; single_quarter_revenue=18957270097.61; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=699890621.07.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=41323106902.68; parent_net_profit=1345220714.33; single_quarter_revenue=13898223457.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=465400535.04.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=4.22; inventory growth=15.63%; receivable growth=62.36%.
Inventory=7885770890.42; receivables=800507025.18; debt ratio=62.57%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=25.16multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=25.16multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=2.66multiple; PS_TTM=1.14multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=25.16multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=21.88multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=35.95multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 山东黄金: 山东黄金 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=GOLD_CORE; cycle drivers=黄金.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
招金黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
山金国际: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
四川黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
湖南黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
恒邦股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
晓程科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中金黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
赤峰黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
西部黄金: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=24.42; MA5/10/20/60/120=24.58/24.55/24.40/28.95/37.03.
20/60/120/250-day high=27.33/37.48/65.55/65.55; low=22.55/22.55/22.55/22.55.
drawdown=-62.75%; volume_percentile=48.00%; RSI14=56.60; ATR14=1.44; volatility20=3.83%.
support=22.55; resistance=27.33.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 5.94% | 2428276.75 | 14591.24 | 0.60% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 14591.24 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=黄金; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

山东黄金 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
山东黄金 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
山东黄金 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
山东黄金 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=山东黄金: 黄金 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=山东黄金: 黄金 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=山东黄金: 山东黄金 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

山东黄金: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600547_山东黄金_20260722