600487 亨通光电 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=亨通光电; 证券代码=600487.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=通信设备；主营分部=光通信板块、其他业务、工业智能控制、智能电网、海洋电力通信与系统集成；产品/服务=光通信板块, 其他业务, 工业智能控制, 智能电网, 海洋电力通信与系统集成, 装卸仓储及其他, 铜导体产品。
商业模式=通信设备；产业链定位=通信设备相关的光通信板块、其他业务、工业智能控制、智能电网、海洋电力通信与系统集成业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20030822；上市年限=22.91；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

光通信板块: revenue=5608847341.12; profit=1543899019.36.
其他业务: revenue=751596884.08; profit=18267290.59.
工业智能控制: revenue=7307783583.53; profit=1023573695.09.
智能电网: revenue=24796092040.54; profit=3227398934.89.
海洋电力通信与系统集成: revenue=5736682630.09; profit=1932116150.24.
装卸仓储及其他: revenue=2569650993.96; profit=292101227.67.
铜导体产品: revenue=20084200907.47; profit=290969828.68.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=66854854380.79; revenue_yoy=11.45%; parent_net_profit=2680269338.43; parent_net_profit_yoy=-3.20%; deduct_profit=2565221774.16; gross_margin=12.46%; net_margin=4.26%; ROE=8.89%; OCF=2807796079.31.
20241231: revenue=59984212421.78; revenue_yoy=25.96%; parent_net_profit=2768821523.55; parent_net_profit_yoy=28.57%; deduct_profit=2576272123.47; gross_margin=13.21%; net_margin=4.95%; ROE=10.22%; OCF=3262089066.89.
20231231: revenue=47621743263.10; revenue_yoy=2.49%; parent_net_profit=2153605330.12; parent_net_profit_yoy=36.00%; deduct_profit=2032701722.72; gross_margin=15.30%; net_margin=4.68%; ROE=8.73%; OCF=1857423231.98.
20221231: revenue=46463983638.92; revenue_yoy=12.58%; parent_net_profit=1583539680.76; parent_net_profit_yoy=10.25%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=854668390.64.
20211231: revenue=41271165065.64; revenue_yoy=27.44%; parent_net_profit=1436301700.64; parent_net_profit_yoy=35.28%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1375948618.88.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=17790560069.79; parent_net_profit=1105364232.68; single_quarter_revenue=17790560069.79; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1105364232.68.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=49620509007.93; parent_net_profit=2375820977.60; single_quarter_revenue=17571945333.54; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=762622270.24.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=32048563674.39; parent_net_profit=1613198707.36; single_quarter_revenue=18780611897.20; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1056415345.11.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=13267951777.19; parent_net_profit=556783362.25; single_quarter_revenue=13267951777.19; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=556783362.25.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=42399340197.21; parent_net_profit=2314805476.78; single_quarter_revenue=15785030826.58; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=705486160.59.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=26614309370.63; parent_net_profit=1609319316.19; single_quarter_revenue=14829470463.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1096244452.11.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=11784838907.31; parent_net_profit=513074864.08; single_quarter_revenue=11784838907.31; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=513074864.08.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=35101445831.21; parent_net_profit=1803880261.16; single_quarter_revenue=11924328435.79; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=554401680.92.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.03; non-recurring effect=-27929453.91.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.18; inventory growth=4.70%; receivable growth=11.34%.
Inventory=9465370177.45; receivables=18719867825.65; debt ratio=51.88%; interest-bearing debt=18137125057.79; cash coverage=0.73.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=45.80multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=55.18multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=4.56multiple; PS_TTM=2.07multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=45.80multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=39.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=65.43multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 亨通光电: 亨通光电 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=OPTICAL_MODULE_CORE; cycle drivers=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=56.56; MA5/10/20/60/120=65.05/71.09/88.41/84.42/64.64.
20/60/120/250-day high=125.16/125.16/125.16/125.16; low=54.52/54.52/26.58/15.30.
drawdown=-54.81%; volume_percentile=84.80%; RSI14=11.03; ATR14=7.45; volatility20=4.69%.
support=54.52; resistance=125.16.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 6.01% | 18720185.56 | 43004.74 | 0.23% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 43004.74 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=光模块; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=光器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI光通信; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

亨通光电 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
亨通光电 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
亨通光电 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
亨通光电 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=亨通光电: 光模块 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=亨通光电: 光模块 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=亨通光电: 亨通光电 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=62.16.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

亨通光电: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600487_亨通光电_20260722