600406 国电南瑞 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=国电南瑞; 证券代码=600406.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=其他业务、工业互联、数能融合、智能电网、能源低碳；产品/服务=其他业务, 工业互联, 数能融合, 智能电网, 能源低碳, 集成及其他。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的其他业务、工业互联、数能融合、智能电网、能源低碳业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20031016；上市年限=22.76；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电网设备, 电力自动化；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=72712919.52; profit=48874290.61.
工业互联: revenue=3013877121.23; profit=649709017.23.
数能融合: revenue=12303335932.73; profit=2782658159.43.
智能电网: revenue=33422155368.42; profit=10066640005.74.
能源低碳: revenue=16729807029.41; profit=3380719671.84.
集成及其他: revenue=687074851.90; profit=183038225.77.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=66228963223.21; revenue_yoy=15.35%; parent_net_profit=8278971723.32; parent_net_profit_yoy=8.79%; deduct_profit=7982955643.59; gross_margin=25.84%; net_margin=13.37%; ROE=16.25%; OCF=12768702125.04.
20241231: revenue=57417254946.56; revenue_yoy=11.33%; parent_net_profit=7610121306.96; parent_net_profit_yoy=5.94%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=11085892935.16.
20231231: revenue=51573303989.39; revenue_yoy=10.13%; parent_net_profit=7183687344.52; parent_net_profit_yoy=11.44%; deduct_profit=6950189275.07; gross_margin=26.80%; net_margin=14.83%; ROE=16.02%; OCF=11444091916.26.
20221231: revenue=46828962926.94; revenue_yoy=10.42%; parent_net_profit=6446181151.11; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.24%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=8759962599.71.
20211231: revenue=42411007392.46; revenue_yoy=10.15%; parent_net_profit=5642448311.81; parent_net_profit_yoy=16.30%; deduct_profit=5529087237.95; gross_margin=26.88%; net_margin=14.25%; ROE=15.64%; OCF=4670773603.37.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=9564242921.53; parent_net_profit=721291973.43; single_quarter_revenue=9564242921.53; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=721291973.43.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=38576507202.81; parent_net_profit=4855280899.04; single_quarter_revenue=14333298762.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1903089623.81.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=24243208440.39; parent_net_profit=2952191275.23; single_quarter_revenue=15348097204.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2271999334.26.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=8895111236.27; parent_net_profit=680191940.97; single_quarter_revenue=8895111236.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=680191940.97.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=32313324082.28; parent_net_profit=4472787896.52; single_quarter_revenue=12199183331.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1763612201.27.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=20114140750.63; parent_net_profit=2709175695.25; single_quarter_revenue=12415536411.91; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2113515932.94.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=7698604338.72; parent_net_profit=595659762.31; single_quarter_revenue=7698604338.72; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=595659762.31.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=28567426528.14; parent_net_profit=4160827566.75; single_quarter_revenue=10317455690.58; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1661490999.70.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.89; non-recurring effect=79305628.20.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-2.10; inventory growth=46.67%; receivable growth=-13.59%.
Inventory=16590949099.58; receivables=26652280492.48; debt ratio=40.20%; interest-bearing debt=647057775.17; cash coverage=8.66.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=22.98multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=23.09multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.57multiple; PS_TTM=2.86multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=22.98multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=19.98multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=32.82multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 国电南瑞: 国电南瑞 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=POWER_GRID_CORE; cycle drivers=电网设备, 电力自动化.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
许继电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=23.56; MA5/10/20/60/120=22.40/22.27/22.60/24.40/25.67.
20/60/120/250-day high=23.95/28.48/32.06/32.06; low=21.26/21.26/21.26/21.08.
drawdown=-26.51%; volume_percentile=90.40%; RSI14=57.35; ATR14=0.61; volatility20=2.15%.
support=21.26; resistance=23.95.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 1.02% | 3181526.22 | -6610.04 | -0.21% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -6610.04 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电网设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电力自动化; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

国电南瑞 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
国电南瑞 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
国电南瑞 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
国电南瑞 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=国电南瑞: 电网设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=国电南瑞: 电网设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=国电南瑞: 国电南瑞 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

国电南瑞: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600406_国电南瑞_20260722