300857 协创数据 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=协创数据; 证券代码=300857.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=IT设备；主营分部=其他收入、数据存储设备、智能算力产品及服务、服务器及周边再制造、物联网智能终端；产品/服务=其他收入, 数据存储设备, 智能算力产品及服务, 服务器及周边再制造, 物联网智能终端。
商业模式=IT设备；产业链定位=IT设备相关的其他收入、数据存储设备、智能算力产品及服务、服务器及周边再制造、物联网智能终端业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20200727；上市年限=5.98；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=消费电子, 智能硬件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他收入: revenue=835166063.26; profit=158652058.25.
数据存储设备: revenue=4492693389.47; profit=669061791.21.
智能算力产品及服务: revenue=2760972318.81; profit=704835519.08.
服务器及周边再制造: revenue=2574914960.41; profit=386743799.82.
物联网智能终端: revenue=1571798914.09; profit=434574627.15.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=12235545646.04; revenue_yoy=65.13%; parent_net_profit=1164383916.12; parent_net_profit_yoy=68.32%; deduct_profit=1135021581.11; gross_margin=19.24%; net_margin=9.41%; ROE=30.63%; OCF=1100067543.06.
20241231: revenue=7409840762.68; revenue_yoy=59.08%; parent_net_profit=691783396.04; parent_net_profit_yoy=140.80%; deduct_profit=671323365.06; gross_margin=17.36%; net_margin=9.27%; ROE=24.54%; OCF=98995295.36.
20231231: revenue=4657847983.80; revenue_yoy=47.95%; parent_net_profit=287286859.53; parent_net_profit_yoy=119.46%; deduct_profit=274761436.12; gross_margin=13.57%; net_margin=6.14%; ROE=14.92%; OCF=-96665192.38.
20221231: revenue=3148338575.12; revenue_yoy=6.37%; parent_net_profit=130907097.23; parent_net_profit_yoy=3.67%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=103603570.02.
20211231: revenue=2959893173.98; revenue_yoy=31.61%; parent_net_profit=126274091.53; parent_net_profit_yoy=25.97%; deduct_profit=100776139.18; gross_margin=11.56%; net_margin=4.18%; ROE=10.23%; OCF=93405114.80.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=6084505275.47; parent_net_profit=750356502.20; single_quarter_revenue=6084505275.47; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=750356502.20.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=8330610619.94; parent_net_profit=697934207.53; single_quarter_revenue=3386626339.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=265879158.41.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=4943984280.54; parent_net_profit=432055049.12; single_quarter_revenue=2866663849.25; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=262844518.24.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=2077320431.29; parent_net_profit=169210530.88; single_quarter_revenue=2077320431.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=169210530.88.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5394584562.27; parent_net_profit=557029082.53; single_quarter_revenue=1816534764.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=199248877.67.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=3578049798.15; parent_net_profit=357780204.86; single_quarter_revenue=1819178902.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=195534734.46.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1758870895.53; parent_net_profit=162245470.40; single_quarter_revenue=1758870895.53; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=162245470.40.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=3228240193.95; parent_net_profit=195818269.69; single_quarter_revenue=1388722553.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=82803821.47.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.00; non-recurring effect=-541765.20.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.36; inventory growth=125.43%; receivable growth=168.64%.
Inventory=4261206152.79; receivables=3740421120.58; debt ratio=85.89%; interest-bearing debt=18025634871.65; cash coverage=0.16.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=68.71multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=103.01multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=23.10multiple; PS_TTM=7.38multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=68.71multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=59.75multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=98.16multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 协创数据: 协创数据 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=CONSUMER_ELECTRONICS_CORE; cycle drivers=消费电子, 智能硬件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=220.00; MA5/10/20/60/120=237.87/258.18/289.47/268.71/250.88.
20/60/120/250-day high=355.55/355.55/355.55/355.55; low=209.00/209.00/181.95/75.42.
drawdown=-38.12%; volume_percentile=89.60%; RSI14=18.47; ATR14=25.32; volatility20=5.20%.
support=209.00; resistance=355.55.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 11.41% | 9094409.12 | -4813.03 | -0.05% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -4813.03 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=消费电子; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=智能硬件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

协创数据 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
协创数据 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
协创数据 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
协创数据 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=协创数据: 消费电子 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=协创数据: 消费电子 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=协创数据: 协创数据 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=254.86.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

协创数据: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300857_协创数据_20260722