300738 奥飞数据 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 可研究参与.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=奥飞数据; 证券代码=300738.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=软件服务；主营分部=IDC服务、其他业务、其他互联网综合服务、分布式光伏系统；产品/服务=IDC服务, 其他业务, 其他互联网综合服务, 分布式光伏系统。
商业模式=软件服务；产业链定位=软件服务相关的IDC服务、其他业务、其他互联网综合服务、分布式光伏系统业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20180119；上市年限=8.5；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=AI应用, 企业数字化, 大模型；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

IDC服务: revenue=1966301736.02; profit=655289177.60.
其他业务: revenue=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
其他互联网综合服务: revenue=416984000.39; profit=131192383.16.
分布式光伏系统: revenue=138075309.27; profit=89163855.89.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=2521361045.68; revenue_yoy=16.47%; parent_net_profit=132340277.40; parent_net_profit_yoy=6.65%; deduct_profit=145636584.84; gross_margin=34.73%; net_margin=6.14%; ROE=3.71%; OCF=1415871723.42.
20241231: revenue=2164819767.10; revenue_yoy=62.18%; parent_net_profit=124085942.08; parent_net_profit_yoy=-12.20%; deduct_profit=104159596.08; gross_margin=26.40%; net_margin=5.88%; ROE=3.87%; OCF=715025123.56.
20231231: revenue=1334794540.87; revenue_yoy=21.63%; parent_net_profit=141328046.51; parent_net_profit_yoy=-14.70%; deduct_profit=126902287.74; gross_margin=27.23%; net_margin=10.85%; ROE=5.88%; OCF=655086877.34.
20221231: revenue=1097434584.65; revenue_yoy=-8.92%; parent_net_profit=165673883.11; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.58%; deduct_profit=108774948.22; gross_margin=28.19%; net_margin=15.01%; ROE=10.04%; OCF=329031227.57.
20211231: revenue=1204950794.90; revenue_yoy=43.35%; parent_net_profit=144594703.28; parent_net_profit_yoy=-7.67%; deduct_profit=152797170.70; gross_margin=29.25%; net_margin=11.90%; ROE=10.14%; OCF=385452111.52.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=702911000.04; parent_net_profit=92727394.31; single_quarter_revenue=702911000.04; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=92727394.31.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=1823522379.04; parent_net_profit=145449465.16; single_quarter_revenue=675530791.34; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=57552539.40.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=1147991587.70; parent_net_profit=87896925.76; single_quarter_revenue=612025157.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=36149353.22.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=535966430.05; parent_net_profit=51747572.54; single_quarter_revenue=535966430.05; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=51747572.54.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1581187398.61; parent_net_profit=105946901.32; single_quarter_revenue=520204239.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=30233220.70.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=1060983158.96; parent_net_profit=75713680.62; single_quarter_revenue=679831118.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=25213160.93.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=381152040.54; parent_net_profit=50500519.69; single_quarter_revenue=381152040.54; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=50500519.69.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=1039058761.83; parent_net_profit=122667578.55; single_quarter_revenue=371943522.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=49195027.81.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=1.03; non-recurring effect=-3076878.19.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=4.33; inventory growth=-21.66%; receivable growth=-14.39%.
Inventory=43389222.35; receivables=541664703.51; debt ratio=74.74%; interest-bearing debt=8325300933.09; cash coverage=0.09.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=123.80multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=162.14multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.51multiple; PS_TTM=7.98multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=123.80multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=107.66multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=176.86multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 奥飞数据: 奥飞数据 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=MEDIA_AI_APP; cycle drivers=AI应用, 企业数字化, 大模型.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
云鼎科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
国新健康: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
智度股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
视觉中国: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
南天信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
远光软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东华软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=20.90; MA5/10/20/60/120=20.14/20.26/20.36/22.49/22.88.
20/60/120/250-day high=22.10/29.49/29.49/29.49; low=18.51/18.51/18.51/17.82.
drawdown=-29.13%; volume_percentile=60.00%; RSI14=54.18; ATR14=1.46; volatility20=3.82%.
support=18.51; resistance=22.10.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 4.21% | 2004865.23 | 20817.05 | 1.04% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 20817.05 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=AI应用; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=企业数字化; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=大模型; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

奥飞数据 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
奥飞数据 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
奥飞数据 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
奥飞数据 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=奥飞数据: AI应用 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=奥飞数据: AI应用 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=奥飞数据: 奥飞数据 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

奥飞数据: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300738_奥飞数据_20260722