300487 蓝晓科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=蓝晓科技; 证券代码=300487.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=化工原料；主营分部=其他主营业务、吸附分离材料、技术服务、系统装置；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 吸附分离材料, 技术服务, 系统装置。
商业模式=化工原料；产业链定位=化工原料相关的其他主营业务、吸附分离材料、技术服务、系统装置业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20150702；上市年限=11.05；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=36852284.92; profit=18975140.30.
吸附分离材料: revenue=2150383107.11; profit=1166041287.03.
技术服务: revenue=98183295.79; profit=75011243.77.
系统装置: revenue=500414137.20; profit=173489463.82.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=2785832825.02; revenue_yoy=9.08%; parent_net_profit=897107659.93; parent_net_profit_yoy=13.96%; deduct_profit=873377963.04; gross_margin=51.46%; net_margin=32.41%; ROE=21.61%; OCF=785486254.79.
20241231: revenue=2554030243.10; revenue_yoy=2.62%; parent_net_profit=787240240.66; parent_net_profit_yoy=9.79%; deduct_profit=745023656.96; gross_margin=49.47%; net_margin=31.11%; ROE=21.42%; OCF=731847446.44.
20231231: revenue=2488817821.21; revenue_yoy=29.62%; parent_net_profit=717032641.13; parent_net_profit_yoy=33.40%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=669316289.82.
20221231: revenue=1920086703.53; revenue_yoy=60.69%; parent_net_profit=537511629.67; parent_net_profit_yoy=72.91%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=723753867.22.
20211231: revenue=1194906530.13; revenue_yoy=29.51%; parent_net_profit=310856595.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=53.85%; deduct_profit=296382936.76; gross_margin=44.57%; net_margin=25.56%; ROE=16.66%; OCF=350304974.18.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=607035376.03; parent_net_profit=181920744.10; single_quarter_revenue=607035376.03; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=181920744.10.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=1933406991.48; parent_net_profit=651727074.41; single_quarter_revenue=685976967.91; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=207201706.55.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=1247430023.57; parent_net_profit=444525367.86; single_quarter_revenue=670637671.11; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=251389185.91.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=576792352.46; parent_net_profit=193136181.95; single_quarter_revenue=576792352.46; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=193136181.95.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1891735231.69; parent_net_profit=596424431.04; single_quarter_revenue=597234621.81; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=192344084.46.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=1294500609.88; parent_net_profit=404080346.58; single_quarter_revenue=663582498.76; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=234936396.85.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=630918111.12; parent_net_profit=169143949.73; single_quarter_revenue=630918111.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=169143949.73.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=1576601547.02; parent_net_profit=518188324.16; single_quarter_revenue=569201647.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=172185808.26.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.00; non-recurring effect=795936.11.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.10; inventory growth=1.65%; receivable growth=2.81%.
Inventory=1174162664.44; receivables=767035694.79; debt ratio=31.57%; interest-bearing debt=516876389.15; cash coverage=5.22.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=37.43multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=36.96multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=7.21multiple; PS_TTM=11.78multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=37.43multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=32.55multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=53.47multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 蓝晓科技: 蓝晓科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SPECIALTY_MATERIAL_CORE; cycle drivers=新材料, 电子材料, 化学制品.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新金路: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
金浦钛业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=64.80; MA5/10/20/60/120=69.61/71.70/67.66/62.34/66.08.
20/60/120/250-day high=85.17/85.17/85.17/85.17; low=54.82/48.39/48.39/48.39.
drawdown=-23.92%; volume_percentile=97.20%; RSI14=55.05; ATR14=7.19; volatility20=7.22%.
support=54.82; resistance=85.17.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 0.51% | 1176348.72 | -9669.22 | -0.82% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -9669.22 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=新材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子材料; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=化学制品; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

蓝晓科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
蓝晓科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
蓝晓科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
蓝晓科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=蓝晓科技: 新材料 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=蓝晓科技: 新材料 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=蓝晓科技: 蓝晓科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=67.84.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

蓝晓科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300487_蓝晓科技_20260722