300308 中际旭创 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中际旭创; 证券代码=300308.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=通信设备；主营分部=其他主营业务、高端光通讯收发模块；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 高端光通讯收发模块。
商业模式=通信设备；产业链定位=通信设备相关的其他主营业务、高端光通讯收发模块业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20120410；上市年限=14.28；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=783416894.77; profit=115502113.11.
高端光通讯收发模块: revenue=37456518745.90; profit=15958896400.79.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=38239935640.67; revenue_yoy=60.25%; parent_net_profit=10797254300.45; parent_net_profit_yoy=108.78%; deduct_profit=10710053246.51; gross_margin=42.04%; net_margin=30.28%; ROE=44.16%; OCF=10896126160.03.
20241231: revenue=23862159738.37; revenue_yoy=122.64%; parent_net_profit=5171485967.85; parent_net_profit_yoy=137.93%; deduct_profit=5068356338.29; gross_margin=33.80%; net_margin=22.51%; ROE=30.97%; OCF=3164582957.85.
20231231: revenue=10717984471.03; revenue_yoy=11.16%; parent_net_profit=2173527747.77; parent_net_profit_yoy=77.58%; deduct_profit=2123669234.59; gross_margin=32.99%; net_margin=20.60%; ROE=16.59%; OCF=1897126918.71.
20221231: revenue=9641794766.08; revenue_yoy=25.29%; parent_net_profit=1223990866.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=39.57%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2448940873.28.
20211231: revenue=7695404805.69; revenue_yoy=9.16%; parent_net_profit=876977126.32; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.33%; deduct_profit=727808794.63; gross_margin=25.57%; net_margin=11.52%; ROE=9.05%; OCF=812760603.14.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=19496398083.95; parent_net_profit=5734501526.83; single_quarter_revenue=19496398083.95; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=5734501526.83.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=25004800851.32; parent_net_profit=7131932436.70; single_quarter_revenue=10215726013.52; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3136817052.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=14789074837.80; parent_net_profit=3995115384.70; single_quarter_revenue=8114898350.57; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2412239256.03.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=6674176487.23; parent_net_profit=1582876128.67; single_quarter_revenue=6674176487.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1582876128.67.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=17312601820.15; parent_net_profit=3752659170.15; single_quarter_revenue=6514007634.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1394238118.73.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=10798594185.75; parent_net_profit=2358421051.42; single_quarter_revenue=5956047261.52; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1349154753.68.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=4842546924.23; parent_net_profit=1009266297.74; single_quarter_revenue=4842546924.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1009266297.74.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=7030290371.60; parent_net_profit=1295867879.63; single_quarter_revenue=3026309127.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=682115099.57.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.00; non-recurring effect=16753186.05.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.59; inventory growth=122.26%; receivable growth=107.13%.
Inventory=15672078021.87; receivables=9535572287.39; debt ratio=32.64%; interest-bearing debt=1717290110.53; cash coverage=7.11.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=84.79multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=117.39multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=35.62multiple; PS_TTM=24.82multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=84.79multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=73.73multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=121.13multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中际旭创: 中际旭创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=OPTICAL_MODULE_CORE; cycle drivers=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=1004.00; MA5/10/20/60/120=1089.96/1109.70/1168.38/1105.32/857.68.
20/60/120/250-day high=1395.00/1416.88/1416.88/1416.88; low=950.55/816.23/506.00/142.00.
drawdown=-29.14%; volume_percentile=97.60%; RSI14=30.65; ATR14=87.29; volatility20=4.67%.
support=950.55; resistance=1395.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 13.20% | 51302197.63 | 257109.55 | 0.50% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 257109.55 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=光模块; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=光器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI光通信; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中际旭创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中际旭创 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中际旭创 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中际旭创 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中际旭创: 光模块 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中际旭创: 光模块 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中际旭创: 中际旭创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA20=1159.70.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中际旭创: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300308_中际旭创_20260722