300124 汇川技术 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 优先复核.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=汇川技术; 证券代码=300124.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=电器仪表；主营分部=其他主营业务、工业自动化与数字化、新兴产业、新能源汽车&轨道交通类、新能源汽车动力系统；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 工业自动化与数字化, 新兴产业, 新能源汽车&轨道交通类, 新能源汽车动力系统, 通用自动化行业。
商业模式=电器仪表；产业链定位=电器仪表相关的其他主营业务、工业自动化与数字化、新兴产业、新能源汽车&轨道交通类、新能源汽车动力系统业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100928；上市年限=15.81；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=工控自动化, 伺服系统, 变频器, PLC, 新能源汽车动力系统, 工业机器人, 数字能源；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=741841125.09; profit=309825627.49.
工业自动化与数字化: revenue=22245401986.97; profit=8958897627.85.
新兴产业: revenue=1795019255.76; profit=519018070.18.
新能源汽车&轨道交通类: revenue=20322581832.31; profit=3272164027.37.
新能源汽车动力系统: revenue=20322581832.31; profit=3272164027.37.
通用自动化行业: revenue=22245401986.97; profit=8958897627.85.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=45104844200.13; revenue_yoy=21.77%; parent_net_profit=5050002089.89; parent_net_profit_yoy=17.84%; deduct_profit=4950505396.54; gross_margin=28.95%; net_margin=11.47%; ROE=15.94%; OCF=6681025417.16.
20241231: revenue=37040952138.72; revenue_yoy=21.77%; parent_net_profit=4285493340.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=-9.62%; deduct_profit=4035832165.85; gross_margin=28.70%; net_margin=11.73%; ROE=16.33%; OCF=7200440164.32.
20231231: revenue=30419925397.64; revenue_yoy=32.21%; parent_net_profit=4741863347.20; parent_net_profit_yoy=9.77%; deduct_profit=4071177195.45; gross_margin=33.55%; net_margin=15.70%; ROE=21.41%; OCF=3369915897.12.
20221231: revenue=23008312443.12; revenue_yoy=28.23%; parent_net_profit=4319762362.29; parent_net_profit_yoy=20.89%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=3200830470.94.
20211231: revenue=17943256595.29; revenue_yoy=55.87%; parent_net_profit=3573404586.07; parent_net_profit_yoy=70.15%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1766024032.95.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=10143223378.12; parent_net_profit=1013451151.58; single_quarter_revenue=10143223378.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1013451151.58.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=31662606469.69; parent_net_profit=4254130654.72; single_quarter_revenue=11153248686.70; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1285742607.98.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=20509357782.99; parent_net_profit=2968388046.74; single_quarter_revenue=11531446052.78; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1645563001.39.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=8977911730.21; parent_net_profit=1322825045.35; single_quarter_revenue=8977911730.21; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1322825045.35.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=25397421789.27; parent_net_profit=3353827529.06; single_quarter_revenue=9214087311.97; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1235766790.60.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=16183334477.30; parent_net_profit=2118060738.46; single_quarter_revenue=9690938307.98; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1306921541.85.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=6492396169.32; parent_net_profit=811139196.61; single_quarter_revenue=6492396169.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=811139196.61.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=20121204085.32; parent_net_profit=3319367588.06; single_quarter_revenue=7670315782.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1242444228.99.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=1.03; non-recurring effect=-32236318.50.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.09; inventory growth=33.24%; receivable growth=1.86%.
Inventory=9267382665.47; receivables=10912713738.22; debt ratio=45.55%; interest-bearing debt=3079143271.12; cash coverage=1.55.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=35.14multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=32.99multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=4.58multiple; PS_TTM=3.60multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=35.14multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=30.56multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=50.20multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 汇川技术: 汇川技术 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=INDUSTRIAL_AUTOMATION; cycle drivers=工控自动化, 伺服系统, 变频器, PLC, 新能源汽车动力系统, 工业机器人, 数字能源.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
英威腾: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
埃斯顿: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
麦格米特: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
雷赛智能: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
机器人: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
卧龙新能: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
卧龙电驱: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
信捷电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
绿的谐波: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
禾川科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
隆基绿能: comparability=0.5; extended context only.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=59.73; MA5/10/20/60/120=60.09/61.84/64.51/70.20/70.92.
20/60/120/250-day high=74.63/84.05/84.05/91.00; low=57.32/57.32/57.32/57.32.
drawdown=-34.36%; volume_percentile=54.40%; RSI14=35.82; ATR14=3.25; volatility20=2.90%.
support=57.32; resistance=74.63.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 3.01% | 2204197.90 | 22224.20 | 1.01% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 22224.20 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=工控自动化; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=伺服系统; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=变频器; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=PLC; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=新能源汽车动力系统; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=工业机器人; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=数字能源; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

汇川技术 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
汇川技术 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
汇川技术 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
汇川技术 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=汇川技术: 工控自动化 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=汇川技术: 工控自动化 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=汇川技术: 汇川技术 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA20=64.25.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

汇川技术: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300124_汇川技术_20260722