300014 亿纬锂能 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=亿纬锂能; 证券代码=300014.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=储能电池、其他业务、动力电池、消费电池；产品/服务=储能电池, 其他业务, 动力电池, 消费电池。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的储能电池、其他业务、动力电池、消费电池业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20091030；上市年限=16.72；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电气设备, 电力设备；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

储能电池: revenue=24441028386.51; profit=3000170872.58.
其他业务: revenue=95665368.11; profit=91935468.85.
动力电池: revenue=25858369302.45; profit=4008256429.16.
消费电池: revenue=11074567719.02; profit=2840776480.22.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=61469630776.09; revenue_yoy=26.44%; parent_net_profit=4134303670.89; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.44%; deduct_profit=3095709718.80; gross_margin=16.17%; net_margin=7.00%; ROE=10.35%; OCF=7492131666.79.
20241231: revenue=48614556525.09; revenue_yoy=-0.35%; parent_net_profit=4075585284.37; parent_net_profit_yoy=0.63%; deduct_profit=3161709550.15; gross_margin=17.41%; net_margin=8.68%; ROE=11.27%; OCF=4433732894.55.
20231231: revenue=48783587175.86; revenue_yoy=34.38%; parent_net_profit=4050174699.52; parent_net_profit_yoy=15.42%; deduct_profit=2755014231.81; gross_margin=17.04%; net_margin=9.27%; ROE=12.43%; OCF=8676259761.12.
20221231: revenue=36303947808.53; revenue_yoy=114.82%; parent_net_profit=3508963827.40; parent_net_profit_yoy=20.76%; deduct_profit=2695027129.97; gross_margin=16.43%; net_margin=10.11%; ROE=14.52%; OCF=2860220008.15.
20211231: revenue=16899804086.38; revenue_yoy=107.06%; parent_net_profit=2905792903.68; parent_net_profit_yoy=75.89%; deduct_profit=2547115324.40; gross_margin=21.57%; net_margin=18.64%; ROE=17.99%; OCF=1862853924.53.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=20679868145.38; parent_net_profit=1446303779.36; single_quarter_revenue=20679868145.38; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1446303779.36.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=45001518158.94; parent_net_profit=2815688702.22; single_quarter_revenue=16831954115.53; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1210517246.45.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=28169564043.41; parent_net_profit=1605171455.77; single_quarter_revenue=15373421827.93; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=504055540.02.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=12796142215.48; parent_net_profit=1101115915.75; single_quarter_revenue=12796142215.48; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1101115915.75.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=34049276929.36; parent_net_profit=3188651049.63; single_quarter_revenue=12389878341.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1051401360.41.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=21659398588.08; parent_net_profit=2137249689.22; single_quarter_revenue=12342077233.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1071535843.50.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=9317321354.65; parent_net_profit=1065713845.72; single_quarter_revenue=9317321354.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1065713845.72.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=35528837484.66; parent_net_profit=3424389233.10; single_quarter_revenue=12553114575.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1273465198.66.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.25; inventory growth=118.76%; receivable growth=25.11%.
Inventory=11488245524.50; receivables=16387344668.26; debt ratio=64.89%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=28.50multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=28.50multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=2.78multiple; PS_TTM=1.92multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=28.50multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=24.78multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=40.71multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 亿纬锂能: 亿纬锂能 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=ELECTRICAL_EQUIPMENT; cycle drivers=电气设备, 电力设备.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
许继电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=50.95; MA5/10/20/60/120=51.75/53.69/58.77/63.37/64.54.
20/60/120/250-day high=69.99/76.18/76.18/94.44; low=49.40/49.40/49.40/43.40.
drawdown=-46.05%; volume_percentile=30.40%; RSI14=8.34; ATR14=2.45; volatility20=2.55%.
support=49.40; resistance=69.99.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 6.40% | 4090127.12 | 62910.58 | 1.54% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 62910.58 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电气设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电力设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

亿纬锂能 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
亿纬锂能 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
亿纬锂能 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
亿纬锂能 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=亿纬锂能: 电气设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=亿纬锂能: 电气设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=亿纬锂能: 亿纬锂能 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA20=58.11.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

亿纬锂能: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300014_亿纬锂能_20260722