002920 德赛西威 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=德赛西威; 证券代码=002920.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=汽车配件；主营分部=其他主营业务、智能座舱、智能驾驶；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 智能座舱, 智能驾驶。
商业模式=汽车配件；产业链定位=汽车配件相关的其他主营业务、智能座舱、智能驾驶业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20171226；上市年限=8.57；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=智能驾驶, 汽车电子；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=2271808002.53; profit=745392594.29.
智能座舱: revenue=20585274894.61; profit=3876327749.84.
智能驾驶: revenue=9700095451.23; profit=1586481430.60.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=32557178348.37; revenue_yoy=17.88%; parent_net_profit=2453584767.75; parent_net_profit_yoy=22.38%; deduct_profit=2413560068.75; gross_margin=19.07%; net_margin=7.60%; ROE=19.58%; OCF=2883761178.73.
20241231: revenue=27618063792.47; revenue_yoy=26.06%; parent_net_profit=2004875279.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=29.62%; deduct_profit=1945561360.88; gross_margin=19.88%; net_margin=7.31%; ROE=22.79%; OCF=1493510667.93.
20231231: revenue=21908002559.19; revenue_yoy=46.71%; parent_net_profit=1546735979.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=30.65%; deduct_profit=1466526184.18; gross_margin=20.44%; net_margin=7.04%; ROE=21.44%; OCF=1141042734.59.
20221231: revenue=14932905788.50; revenue_yoy=56.05%; parent_net_profit=1183845528.12; parent_net_profit_yoy=42.13%; deduct_profit=1036644964.61; gross_margin=23.03%; net_margin=7.84%; ROE=20.04%; OCF=609599866.63.
20211231: revenue=9569434480.19; revenue_yoy=40.75%; parent_net_profit=832922008.36; parent_net_profit_yoy=60.75%; deduct_profit=821169790.02; gross_margin=24.60%; net_margin=8.69%; ROE=16.69%; OCF=842949892.46.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=6495182292.00; parent_net_profit=461487967.35; single_quarter_revenue=6495182292.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=461487967.35.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=22336551337.32; parent_net_profit=1787715205.20; single_quarter_revenue=7692325128.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=565156151.96.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=14644226208.89; parent_net_profit=1222559053.24; single_quarter_revenue=7852263680.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=640310516.62.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=6791962528.76; parent_net_profit=582248536.62; single_quarter_revenue=6791962528.76; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=582248536.62.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=18974765447.01; parent_net_profit=1406806972.61; single_quarter_revenue=7282348208.93; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=568386641.94.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=11692417238.08; parent_net_profit=838420330.67; single_quarter_revenue=6044685378.67; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=453649352.00.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=5647731859.41; parent_net_profit=384770978.67; single_quarter_revenue=5647731859.41; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=384770978.67.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=14470391710.46; parent_net_profit=960328624.40; single_quarter_revenue=5745911829.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=353264411.13.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=2.42; inventory growth=48.59%; receivable growth=-30.89%.
Inventory=5492406773.45; receivables=6637564869.83; debt ratio=49.36%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=20.56multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=20.56multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.27multiple; PS_TTM=1.55multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=20.56multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=17.88multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=29.37multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 德赛西威: 德赛西威 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=AUTO_INTELLIGENCE_CORE; cycle drivers=智能驾驶, 汽车电子.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
富奥股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
潍柴动力: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=83.40; MA5/10/20/60/120=83.04/84.44/83.33/94.93/105.55.
20/60/120/250-day high=91.35/114.96/137.23/154.17; low=76.93/76.93/76.93/76.93.
drawdown=-45.90%; volume_percentile=21.60%; RSI14=52.80; ATR14=4.45; volatility20=3.29%.
support=76.93; resistance=91.35.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 1.35% | 705792.93 | -2744.47 | -0.39% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -2744.47 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=智能驾驶; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=汽车电子; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

德赛西威 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
德赛西威 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
德赛西威 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
德赛西威 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=德赛西威: 智能驾驶 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=德赛西威: 智能驾驶 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=德赛西威: 德赛西威 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 中期支撑尚在，但短线转弱；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；守住 MA20=83.35，中期支撑尚在但短线转弱.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

德赛西威: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002920_德赛西威_20260722