002747 埃斯顿 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=埃斯顿; 证券代码=002747.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=机械基件；主营分部=工业机器人及智能制造系统、自动化核心部件及运动控制系统；产品/服务=工业机器人及智能制造系统, 自动化核心部件及运动控制系统。
商业模式=机械基件；产业链定位=机械基件相关的工业机器人及智能制造系统、自动化核心部件及运动控制系统业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20150320；上市年限=11.34；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=机器人, 工控；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

工业机器人及智能制造系统: revenue=3996827901.69; profit=1168338514.50.
自动化核心部件及运动控制系统: revenue=891183061.95; profit=271182847.98.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=4888010963.64; revenue_yoy=21.93%; parent_net_profit=44972202.09; parent_net_profit_yoy=-105.55%; deduct_profit=7280597.68; gross_margin=29.45%; net_margin=0.93%; ROE=2.40%; OCF=506532334.23.
20241231: revenue=4008771676.12; revenue_yoy=-13.83%; parent_net_profit=-810444512.94; parent_net_profit_yoy=-700.14%; deduct_profit=-835666443.23; gross_margin=29.57%; net_margin=-20.38%; ROE=-36.12%; OCF=-73584820.63.
20231231: revenue=4651949253.97; revenue_yoy=19.87%; parent_net_profit=135041886.09; parent_net_profit_yoy=-18.80%; deduct_profit=85004686.20; gross_margin=31.93%; net_margin=2.85%; ROE=4.94%; OCF=29877272.69.
20221231: revenue=3880778517.66; revenue_yoy=28.49%; parent_net_profit=166303391.26; parent_net_profit_yoy=36.28%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=27064201.42.
20211231: revenue=3020377352.56; revenue_yoy=20.33%; parent_net_profit=122030252.03; parent_net_profit_yoy=-4.75%; deduct_profit=67201871.38; gross_margin=32.54%; net_margin=5.19%; ROE=5.64%; OCF=311524918.39.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1216554921.40; parent_net_profit=97836660.50; single_quarter_revenue=1216554921.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=97836660.50.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=3803569707.31; parent_net_profit=29003927.52; single_quarter_revenue=1254993149.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=22321662.93.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=2548576557.91; parent_net_profit=6682264.59; single_quarter_revenue=1304446214.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-5947678.48.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1244130343.59; parent_net_profit=12629943.07; single_quarter_revenue=1244130343.59; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=12629943.07.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=3366813348.31; parent_net_profit=-66699777.03; single_quarter_revenue=1197738722.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=6716222.68.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=2169074626.04; parent_net_profit=-73415999.71; single_quarter_revenue=1166007624.98; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-79945406.68.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1003067001.06; parent_net_profit=6529406.97; single_quarter_revenue=1003067001.06; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=6529406.97.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=3225541757.18; parent_net_profit=140269264.46; single_quarter_revenue=984462819.25; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=42866470.25.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.20; non-recurring effect=78478068.09.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-1.50; inventory growth=-20.12%; receivable growth=18.74%.
Inventory=1374770088.41; receivables=2109418078.41; debt ratio=69.18%; interest-bearing debt=3758945041.37; cash coverage=0.48.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=248.53multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=719.41multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=9.99multiple; PS_TTM=6.66multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=248.53multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=216.11multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=355.04multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 埃斯顿: 埃斯顿 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=ROBOTICS_CORE; cycle drivers=机器人, 工控.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中联重科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
徐工机械: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=34.37; MA5/10/20/60/120=38.86/41.02/40.07/31.85/27.10.
20/60/120/250-day high=49.00/49.00/49.00/49.00; low=32.93/20.25/19.21/19.21.
drawdown=-29.86%; volume_percentile=89.20%; RSI14=46.06; ATR14=4.04; volatility20=6.72%.
support=32.93; resistance=49.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | -2.73% | 4061597.63 | 13637.62 | 0.34% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 13637.62 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=机器人; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=工控; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

埃斯顿 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
埃斯顿 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
埃斯顿 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
埃斯顿 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=埃斯顿: 机器人 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=埃斯顿: 机器人 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=埃斯顿: 埃斯顿 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=37.86.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

埃斯顿: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002747_埃斯顿_20260722