002558 巨人网络 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=巨人网络; 证券代码=002558.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=互联网；主营分部=其他业务、其他游戏相关业务收入、电脑端网络游戏收入、移动端网络游戏收入；产品/服务=其他业务, 其他游戏相关业务收入, 电脑端网络游戏收入, 移动端网络游戏收入。
商业模式=互联网；产业链定位=互联网相关的其他业务、其他游戏相关业务收入、电脑端网络游戏收入、移动端网络游戏收入业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20110302；上市年限=15.39；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=游戏, 传媒, AI应用, AIGC, 游戏出海；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=11205140.35; profit=3964553.73.
其他游戏相关业务收入: revenue=96525639.85; profit=86611536.54.
电脑端网络游戏收入: revenue=627885505.28; profit=552915623.89.
移动端网络游戏收入: revenue=4311770836.72; profit=3951311363.93.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=5047387122.20; revenue_yoy=72.69%; parent_net_profit=1754514184.37; parent_net_profit_yoy=23.13%; deduct_profit=2127472552.49; gross_margin=91.03%; net_margin=35.03%; ROE=12.44%; OCF=2985105474.41.
20241231: revenue=2922846402.21; revenue_yoy=-0.05%; parent_net_profit=1424901718.85; parent_net_profit_yoy=31.15%; deduct_profit=1622746717.13; gross_margin=87.34%; net_margin=48.96%; ROE=11.63%; OCF=1034206211.93.
20231231: revenue=2924173672.43; revenue_yoy=43.50%; parent_net_profit=1086440305.95; parent_net_profit_yoy=27.67%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1125072143.78.
20221231: revenue=2037707421.34; revenue_yoy=-4.07%; parent_net_profit=850952891.35; parent_net_profit_yoy=-14.43%; deduct_profit=1017874613.71; gross_margin=84.04%; net_margin=40.92%; ROE=7.60%; OCF=736854360.96.
20211231: revenue=2124268636.73; revenue_yoy=-4.20%; parent_net_profit=994509684.67; parent_net_profit_yoy=-3.35%; deduct_profit=1054722902.38; gross_margin=84.85%; net_margin=46.58%; ROE=9.94%; OCF=637938977.44.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=2328514124.66; parent_net_profit=1080400017.37; single_quarter_revenue=2328514124.66; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1080400017.37.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=3368421677.17; parent_net_profit=1416820995.71; single_quarter_revenue=1706221699.72; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=639772904.67.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=1662199977.45; parent_net_profit=777048091.04; single_quarter_revenue=938385574.30; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=429180346.08.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=723814403.15; parent_net_profit=347867744.96; single_quarter_revenue=723814403.15; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=347867744.96.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=2218411601.50; parent_net_profit=1070804528.04; single_quarter_revenue=791274181.21; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=353093651.88.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=1427137420.29; parent_net_profit=717710876.16; single_quarter_revenue=730735204.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=365301827.70.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=696402216.01; parent_net_profit=352409048.46; single_quarter_revenue=696402216.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=352409048.46.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=2267254807.49; parent_net_profit=1084821647.95; single_quarter_revenue=823766716.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=421231332.33.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.22; inventory growth=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); receivable growth=83.73%.
Inventory=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); receivables=270861437.84; debt ratio=19.86%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:inventory; periods=20260331; impact=inventory quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=32.36multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=32.36multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.69multiple; PS_TTM=11.25multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=32.36multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=28.14multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=46.22multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 巨人网络: 巨人网络 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=GAME_CORE; cycle drivers=游戏, 传媒, AI应用, AIGC, 游戏出海.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
云鼎科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
国新健康: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
智度股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
视觉中国: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
南天信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
远光软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东华软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=29.98; MA5/10/20/60/120=29.16/28.93/28.00/28.08/32.86.
20/60/120/250-day high=31.31/34.29/53.35/53.35; low=24.70/23.44/23.44/23.15.
drawdown=-43.81%; volume_percentile=95.20%; RSI14=58.51; ATR14=2.23; volatility20=4.18%.
support=24.70; resistance=31.31.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | -0.37% | 4387703.56 | -28441.52 | -0.65% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -28441.52 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=游戏; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=传媒; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI应用; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AIGC; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=游戏出海; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

巨人网络 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
巨人网络 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
巨人网络 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
巨人网络 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=巨人网络: 游戏 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=巨人网络: 游戏 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=巨人网络: 巨人网络 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金持续派发，今天不能证明承接；趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

巨人网络: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002558_巨人网络_20260722