002475 立讯精密 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=立讯精密; 证券代码=002475.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=其它连接器、汽车互联产品及精密组件、消费性电子、通讯互联产品及精密组件；产品/服务=其它连接器, 汽车互联产品及精密组件, 消费性电子, 通讯互联产品及精密组件。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的其它连接器、汽车互联产品及精密组件、消费性电子、通讯互联产品及精密组件业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100915；上市年限=15.85；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其它连接器: revenue=4255546832.61; profit=771522522.84.
汽车互联产品及精密组件: revenue=39255371878.90; profit=6183332583.10.
消费性电子: revenue=264265914303.66; profit=28112765240.94.
通讯互联产品及精密组件: revenue=24567610128.22; profit=4520911819.80.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=332344443143.39; revenue_yoy=23.64%; parent_net_profit=16599769785.64; parent_net_profit_yoy=24.20%; deduct_profit=14168855968.15; gross_margin=11.91%; net_margin=5.47%; ROE=21.52%; OCF=17325329533.97.
20241231: revenue=268794737612.58; revenue_yoy=15.91%; parent_net_profit=13365651026.16; parent_net_profit_yoy=22.03%; deduct_profit=11694305563.27; gross_margin=10.41%; net_margin=5.42%; ROE=21.28%; OCF=27116908208.53.
20231231: revenue=231905459829.83; revenue_yoy=8.35%; parent_net_profit=10952656702.16; parent_net_profit_yoy=19.53%; deduct_profit=10185553553.99; gross_margin=11.58%; net_margin=5.28%; ROE=21.55%; OCF=27605060411.16.
20221231: revenue=214028394291.44; revenue_yoy=39.03%; parent_net_profit=9163104849.54; parent_net_profit_yoy=29.60%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=12727610319.34.
20211231: revenue=153946097790.40; revenue_yoy=66.43%; parent_net_profit=7070520386.57; parent_net_profit_yoy=-2.14%; deduct_profit=6015597220.13; gross_margin=12.28%; net_margin=5.08%; ROE=22.31%; OCF=7284766917.00.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=83888491960.13; parent_net_profit=3659643487.30; single_quarter_revenue=83888491960.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3659643487.30.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=220914627539.37; parent_net_profit=11518291164.73; single_quarter_revenue=96411453423.77; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=4874019115.27.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=124503174115.60; parent_net_profit=6644272049.46; single_quarter_revenue=62715484252.97; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3600697364.67.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=61787689862.63; parent_net_profit=3043574684.79; single_quarter_revenue=61787689862.63; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3043574684.79.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=177176884792.12; parent_net_profit=9074954475.62; single_quarter_revenue=73578910433.75; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3678791617.01.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=103597974358.37; parent_net_profit=5396162858.61; single_quarter_revenue=51191198773.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2925138191.62.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=52406775584.57; parent_net_profit=2471024666.99; single_quarter_revenue=52406775584.57; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2471024666.99.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=155874816160.33; parent_net_profit=7374174504.76; single_quarter_revenue=57903635250.06; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3018448573.21.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.76; non-recurring effect=883537771.14.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-1.93; inventory growth=45.20%; receivable growth=33.74%.
Inventory=46032089420.41; receivables=43548712833.70; debt ratio=66.53%; interest-bearing debt=125333880385.96; cash coverage=0.56.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=27.11multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=28.12multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.25multiple; PS_TTM=1.32multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=27.11multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=23.58multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=38.73multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 立讯精密: 立讯精密 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=56.80; MA5/10/20/60/120=59.71/60.99/64.34/68.51/60.32.
20/60/120/250-day high=76.30/81.78/81.78/81.78; low=55.03/55.03/44.57/34.91.
drawdown=-30.55%; volume_percentile=44.80%; RSI14=29.43; ATR14=4.25; volatility20=4.82%.
support=55.03; resistance=76.30.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 6.37% | 9326953.42 | 174239.37 | 1.87% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 174239.37 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

立讯精密 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
立讯精密 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
立讯精密 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
立讯精密 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=立讯精密: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=立讯精密: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=立讯精密: 立讯精密 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=60.70.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

立讯精密: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002475_立讯精密_20260722