002371 北方华创 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 优先复核.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=北方华创; 证券代码=002371.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=其他业务、电子元件、电子工艺装备；产品/服务=其他业务, 电子元件, 电子工艺装备。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的其他业务、电子元件、电子工艺装备业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100316；上市年限=16.35；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设备, 国产替代；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=42614639.90; profit=26120448.99.
电子元件: revenue=2579277891.07; profit=1365750999.40.
电子工艺装备: revenue=36731219888.81; profit=14390199589.69.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=39353112419.78; revenue_yoy=31.89%; parent_net_profit=5521993004.86; parent_net_profit_yoy=-1.76%; deduct_profit=5335952532.08; gross_margin=40.10%; net_margin=13.74%; ROE=16.05%; OCF=2133444577.85.
20241231: revenue=29838069162.26; revenue_yoy=35.14%; parent_net_profit=5621189109.03; parent_net_profit_yoy=44.17%; deduct_profit=5570060947.81; gross_margin=42.85%; net_margin=19.08%; ROE=20.28%; OCF=1573165054.27.
20231231: revenue=22079458092.37; revenue_yoy=50.32%; parent_net_profit=3899069987.91; parent_net_profit_yoy=65.73%; deduct_profit=3581368813.58; gross_margin=41.10%; net_margin=18.26%; ROE=17.68%; OCF=2365007734.54.
20221231: revenue=14688111969.67; revenue_yoy=51.68%; parent_net_profit=2352726657.86; parent_net_profit_yoy=118.37%; deduct_profit=2106066422.59; gross_margin=43.83%; net_margin=17.30%; ROE=12.84%; OCF=-727939010.42.
20211231: revenue=9683478119.38; revenue_yoy=59.90%; parent_net_profit=1077409991.25; parent_net_profit_yoy=100.66%; deduct_profit=806719757.21; gross_margin=39.41%; net_margin=12.32%; ROE=9.10%; OCF=-776859120.34.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=10322863908.82; parent_net_profit=1634739048.68; single_quarter_revenue=10322863908.82; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1634739048.68.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=27301379656.81; parent_net_profit=5130342602.70; single_quarter_revenue=11159833472.07; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1922364079.12.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=16141546184.74; parent_net_profit=3207978523.58; single_quarter_revenue=7935516975.91; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1627271237.20.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=8206029208.83; parent_net_profit=1580707286.38; single_quarter_revenue=8206029208.83; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1580707286.38.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=20352770959.17; parent_net_profit=4462521361.56; single_quarter_revenue=8017863754.89; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1681917060.31.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=12334907204.28; parent_net_profit=2780604301.25; single_quarter_revenue=6475743823.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1654053673.89.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=5859163380.59; parent_net_profit=1126550627.36; single_quarter_revenue=5859163380.59; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1126550627.36.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=14588362292.87; parent_net_profit=2884216678.73; single_quarter_revenue=6161772205.34; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1084980156.17.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.00; non-recurring effect=8060875.83.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.46; inventory growth=21.83%; receivable growth=45.25%.
Inventory=28602898183.20; receivables=8780279745.35; debt ratio=50.01%; interest-bearing debt=15526450714.04; cash coverage=1.16.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=96.91multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=97.85multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=13.75multiple; PS_TTM=13.03multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=96.91multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=84.27multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=138.44multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 北方华创: 北方华创 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_EQUIPMENT_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设备, 国产替代.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
创元科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=676.91; MA5/10/20/60/120=714.71/762.60/794.82/669.01/569.44.
20/60/120/250-day high=968.00/968.00/968.00/968.00; low=659.10/448.00/422.25/314.33.
drawdown=-30.07%; volume_percentile=95.20%; RSI14=28.67; ATR14=67.37; volatility20=4.79%.
support=659.10; resistance=968.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 10585799.78 | -91395.70 | -0.86% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -91395.70 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=国产替代; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

北方华创 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
北方华创 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
北方华创 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
北方华创 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=北方华创: 半导体设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=北方华创: 半导体设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=北方华创: 北方华创 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=756.42.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

北方华创: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002371_北方华创_20260722