002364 中恒电气 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中恒电气; 证券代码=002364.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=其他主营业务、数据中心电源、电力操作电源系统、电力管理服务及工程收入(服务收入)、软件开发、销售及技术服务；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 数据中心电源, 电力操作电源系统, 电力管理服务及工程收入(服务收入), 软件开发、销售及技术服务, 通信电源系统。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的其他主营业务、数据中心电源、电力操作电源系统、电力管理服务及工程收入(服务收入)、软件开发、销售及技术服务业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100305；上市年限=16.38；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电气设备, 电力设备；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=72298104.58; profit=2865983.79.
数据中心电源: revenue=775760637.60; profit=160649186.18.
电力操作电源系统: revenue=473677203.64; profit=114592451.08.
电力管理服务及工程收入(服务收入): revenue=12363255.16; profit=5203936.53.
软件开发、销售及技术服务: revenue=418902082.85; profit=144859191.96.
通信电源系统: revenue=384226545.94; profit=102764198.81.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=2137227829.77; revenue_yoy=8.94%; parent_net_profit=126374581.15; parent_net_profit_yoy=15.27%; deduct_profit=115324081.29; gross_margin=24.84%; net_margin=6.16%; ROE=5.15%; OCF=243302503.31.
20241231: revenue=1961925008.01; revenue_yoy=26.13%; parent_net_profit=109629757.86; parent_net_profit_yoy=178.52%; deduct_profit=83128828.93; gross_margin=26.17%; net_margin=5.76%; ROE=4.63%; OCF=468472705.36.
20231231: revenue=1555439583.34; revenue_yoy=-3.33%; parent_net_profit=39361747.82; parent_net_profit_yoy=-170.51%; deduct_profit=19694671.69; gross_margin=26.30%; net_margin=2.73%; ROE=1.73%; OCF=236842111.54.
20221231: revenue=1609100893.93; revenue_yoy=-11.53%; parent_net_profit=-55821952.46; parent_net_profit_yoy=-162.51%; deduct_profit=-64169994.92; gross_margin=21.24%; net_margin=-3.51%; ROE=-2.45%; OCF=156163413.95.
20211231: revenue=1818872738.35; revenue_yoy=26.88%; parent_net_profit=89301472.08; parent_net_profit_yoy=5.01%; deduct_profit=69224543.46; gross_margin=26.26%; net_margin=4.64%; ROE=3.92%; OCF=11559133.10.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=418396025.60; parent_net_profit=24935658.45; single_quarter_revenue=418396025.60; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=24935658.45.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=1418151854.31; parent_net_profit=72573147.22; single_quarter_revenue=527053195.68; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=25090506.93.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=891098658.63; parent_net_profit=47482640.29; single_quarter_revenue=502939760.58; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=27191437.48.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=388158898.05; parent_net_profit=20291202.81; single_quarter_revenue=388158898.05; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=20291202.81.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1178974725.99; parent_net_profit=85981023.58; single_quarter_revenue=399138377.41; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=17965718.32.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=779836348.58; parent_net_profit=68015305.26; single_quarter_revenue=430349760.49; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=57006649.30.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=349486588.09; parent_net_profit=11008655.96; single_quarter_revenue=349486588.09; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=11008655.96.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=978156801.91; parent_net_profit=30341349.28; single_quarter_revenue=323183632.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=19450237.39.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-5.66; inventory growth=73.77%; receivable growth=-6.95%.
Inventory=1210181650.22; receivables=963410063.43; debt ratio=43.87%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=178.33multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=178.33multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=9.10multiple; PS_TTM=10.54multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=178.33multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=155.07multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=254.76multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中恒电气: 中恒电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=ELECTRICAL_EQUIPMENT; cycle drivers=电气设备, 电力设备.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
许继电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=37.77; MA5/10/20/60/120=45.74/49.22/51.25/50.06/41.42.
20/60/120/250-day high=59.86/59.97/59.97/59.97; low=37.77/37.77/25.53/14.86.
drawdown=-37.02%; volume_percentile=56.80%; RSI14=29.73; ATR14=5.07; volatility20=5.76%.
support=37.77; resistance=59.86.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 5.88% | 2055280.84 | 3994.72 | 0.19% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 3994.72 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电气设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电力设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中恒电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中恒电气 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中恒电气 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中恒电气 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中恒电气: 电气设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中恒电气: 电气设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中恒电气: 中恒电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=43.02.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中恒电气: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002364_中恒电气_20260722