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STOCK RESEARCH REPORT

002281_光迅科技_20260722

002281 光迅科技 Deep Research

当前结论

  • Research conclusion: 重点关注.
  • Trade conclusion: 等确认.
  • Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

  • This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

  • Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

  • 公司=光迅科技; 证券代码=002281.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
  • 行业=通信设备；主营分部=传输、其他业务、其他主营业务、接入和数据；产品/服务=传输, 其他业务, 其他主营业务, 接入和数据。
  • 商业模式=通信设备；产业链定位=通信设备相关的传输、其他业务、其他主营业务、接入和数据业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
  • 上市日期=20090821；上市年限=16.91；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
  • 业务标签=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

  • 传输: revenue=3411650005.55; profit=904821759.61.
  • 其他业务: revenue=28296547.10; profit=21484985.29.
  • 其他主营业务: revenue=25859054.41; profit=19812829.33.
  • 接入和数据: revenue=8462891520.32; profit=1848806509.15.

多期财务趋势

  • Annual series (ANNUAL):
  • 20251231: revenue=11928697127.38; revenue_yoy=44.20%; parent_net_profit=946320781.21; parent_net_profit_yoy=43.10%; deduct_profit=915411336.26; gross_margin=23.43%; net_margin=7.81%; ROE=9.86%; OCF=1627903629.64.
  • 20241231: revenue=8272310184.75; revenue_yoy=36.49%; parent_net_profit=661315430.94; parent_net_profit_yoy=6.78%; deduct_profit=629707673.44; gross_margin=22.46%; net_margin=7.93%; ROE=7.54%; OCF=-640940655.47.
  • 20231231: revenue=6060944999.12; revenue_yoy=-12.31%; parent_net_profit=619329416.51; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.80%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1050171264.84.
  • 20221231: revenue=6911881248.07; revenue_yoy=6.56%; parent_net_profit=608407790.49; parent_net_profit_yoy=7.25%; deduct_profit=545856792.63; gross_margin=23.61%; net_margin=8.88%; ROE=10.44%; OCF=639235162.17.
  • 20211231: revenue=6486301555.77; revenue_yoy=7.28%; parent_net_profit=567266618.25; parent_net_profit_yoy=16.39%; deduct_profit=469929479.83; gross_margin=24.20%; net_margin=8.72%; ROE=10.74%; OCF=673155789.02.
  • Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
  • 20260331 cumulative: revenue=2773352847.92; parent_net_profit=239931671.46; single_quarter_revenue=2773352847.92; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=239931671.46.
  • 20250930 cumulative: revenue=8531642135.18; parent_net_profit=718971393.52; single_quarter_revenue=3288702640.25; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=346602627.70.
  • 20250630 cumulative: revenue=5242939494.93; parent_net_profit=372368765.82; single_quarter_revenue=3020610908.30; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=222182332.24.
  • 20250331 cumulative: revenue=2222328586.63; parent_net_profit=150186433.58; single_quarter_revenue=2222328586.63; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=150186433.58.
  • 20240930 cumulative: revenue=5377786127.88; parent_net_profit=464003874.57; single_quarter_revenue=2267841540.20; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=255304347.33.
  • 20240630 cumulative: revenue=3109944587.68; parent_net_profit=208699527.24; single_quarter_revenue=1818937594.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=131267890.14.
  • 20240331 cumulative: revenue=1291006993.41; parent_net_profit=77431637.10; single_quarter_revenue=1291006993.41; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=77431637.10.
  • 20230930 cumulative: revenue=4326834653.11; parent_net_profit=414400522.06; single_quarter_revenue=1511955878.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=175513360.43.

盈利能力

  • Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

  • OCF/parent profit=0.82; inventory growth=89.06%; receivable growth=-45.30%.
  • Inventory=7477665703.75; receivables=1284589947.79; debt ratio=43.13%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

  • PE_TTM_ACTUAL=163.53multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=163.53multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=15.34multiple; PS_TTM=12.97multiple.
  • VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
  • Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

  • CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=163.53multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
  • NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=142.20multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
  • CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=233.62multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

  • Bear case / counterevidence: 光迅科技: 光迅科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

  • Industry=OPTICAL_MODULE_CORE; cycle drivers=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信.

直接同行对比

  • DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
  • 深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • 华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
  • EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
  • No extended peer context is available.

技术面

  • bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=170.51; MA5/10/20/60/120=203.68/214.48/227.99/208.52/146.01.
  • 20/60/120/250-day high=278.00/279.00/279.00/279.00; low=170.51/120.50/65.27/45.93.
  • drawdown=-38.89%; volume_percentile=76.00%; RSI14=27.13; ATR14=20.90; volatility20=6.08%.
  • support=170.51; resistance=278.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 9.67% | 13424196.50 | 162818.29 | 1.21% |

  • 1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 162818.29 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
  • Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
  • Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

  • No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

  • No structured announcement item is available.
  • Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

  • catalyst=光模块; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
  • catalyst=光器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
  • catalyst=AI光通信; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

  • 光迅科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
  • 光迅科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
  • 光迅科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
  • 光迅科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新 需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

  • Bull case=光迅科技: 光模块 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=光迅科技: 光模块 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=光迅科技: 光迅科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

  • Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=194.49.

仓位与执行约束

  • Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

  • CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

  • 光迅科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

  • Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

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