002230 科大讯飞 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 可研究参与.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=科大讯飞; 证券代码=002230.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=软件服务；主营分部=企业AI解决方案、信息工程、其他业务、其他主营业务、开放平台；产品/服务=企业AI解决方案, 信息工程, 其他业务, 其他主营业务, 开放平台, 教育产品和服务, 数字政府行业应用, 智慧医疗, 智慧政法行业应用, 智慧汽车。
商业模式=软件服务；产业链定位=软件服务相关的企业AI解决方案、信息工程、其他业务、其他主营业务、开放平台业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20080512；上市年限=18.19；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=AI应用, 大模型, 智能语音, 智慧教育, AIGC；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

企业AI解决方案: revenue=858924808.45; profit=436643628.47.
信息工程: revenue=1299840753.42; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
其他业务: revenue=70196759.54; profit=47276398.65.
其他主营业务: revenue=354289027.65; profit=54517618.90.
开放平台: revenue=6088310052.51; profit=1178784020.67.
教育产品和服务: revenue=8967359795.13; profit=4942192534.76.
数字政府行业应用: revenue=1558485446.04; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
智慧医疗: revenue=858054929.00; profit=414761841.25.
智慧政法行业应用: revenue=713362743.18; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
智慧汽车: revenue=1239966473.07; profit=627294577.31.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=27105390547.66; revenue_yoy=16.12%; parent_net_profit=839390861.36; parent_net_profit_yoy=49.85%; deduct_profit=264276850.77; gross_margin=42.36%; net_margin=3.13%; ROE=4.59%; OCF=3208095271.78.
20241231: revenue=23343093018.69; revenue_yoy=18.79%; parent_net_profit=560162663.16; parent_net_profit_yoy=-14.78%; deduct_profit=188137288.93; gross_margin=42.63%; net_margin=2.17%; ROE=3.22%; OCF=2495173454.92.
20231231: revenue=19650329209.04; revenue_yoy=4.41%; parent_net_profit=657312908.24; parent_net_profit_yoy=17.12%; deduct_profit=118061711.15; gross_margin=42.66%; net_margin=3.12%; ROE=3.93%; OCF=349757814.55.
20221231: revenue=18820234052.91; revenue_yoy=2.77%; parent_net_profit=561213020.79; parent_net_profit_yoy=-63.94%; deduct_profit=417818753.60; gross_margin=40.83%; net_margin=2.65%; ROE=3.38%; OCF=630761247.28.
20211231: revenue=18313605605.92; revenue_yoy=40.61%; parent_net_profit=1556463894.56; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.13%; deduct_profit=978739466.81; gross_margin=41.13%; net_margin=8.80%; ROE=10.57%; OCF=893075431.31.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=5274188660.25; parent_net_profit=-169724621.52; single_quarter_revenue=5274188660.25; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-169724621.52.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=16989434774.08; parent_net_profit=-66675426.29; single_quarter_revenue=6078496951.37; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=172251812.40.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=10910937822.71; parent_net_profit=-238927238.69; single_quarter_revenue=6253122136.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-45675509.33.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=4657815685.81; parent_net_profit=-193251729.36; single_quarter_revenue=4657815685.81; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-193251729.36.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=14849536928.14; parent_net_profit=-343704233.43; single_quarter_revenue=5524991887.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=56961383.78.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=9324545041.14; parent_net_profit=-400665617.21; single_quarter_revenue=5678329654.19; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-100197587.01.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=3646215386.95; parent_net_profit=-300468030.20; single_quarter_revenue=3646215386.95; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-300468030.20.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=12613745271.17; parent_net_profit=99362112.37; single_quarter_revenue=4772192866.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=25790116.26.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=2.53; non-recurring effect=259869468.62.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=6.30; inventory growth=13.15%; receivable growth=11.87%.
Inventory=3220922361.58; receivables=16407251068.45; debt ratio=56.41%; interest-bearing debt=9083359691.04; cash coverage=0.33.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=116.08multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=119.33multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.31multiple; PS_TTM=3.61multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=116.08multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=100.94multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=165.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 科大讯飞: 科大讯飞 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=MEDIA_AI_APP; cycle drivers=AI应用, 大模型, 智能语音, 智慧教育, AIGC.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
云鼎科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
国新健康: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
智度股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
视觉中国: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
南天信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
远光软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东华软件: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

分时结构未纳入本次裁决。
涨跌停概率模型仅作辅助背景，不作为本次深度报告硬门禁。
bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=40.97; MA5/10/20/60/120=41.32/41.50/41.26/45.09/48.83.
20/60/120/250-day high=44.30/50.99/65.02/67.50; low=39.07/39.07/39.07/39.07.
drawdown=-39.30%; volume_percentile=28.00%; RSI14=50.70; ATR14=1.60; volatility20=2.42%.
support=39.07; resistance=44.30.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 1.78% | 1900912.05 | 24405.81 | 1.28% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 24405.81 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=AI应用; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=大模型; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=智能语音; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=智慧教育; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AIGC; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

科大讯飞 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
科大讯飞 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
科大讯飞 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
科大讯飞 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=科大讯飞: AI应用 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=科大讯飞: AI应用 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=科大讯飞: 科大讯飞 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

科大讯飞: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002230_科大讯飞_20260722