002151 北斗星通 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=北斗星通; 证券代码=002151.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=通信设备；主营分部=产品销售、服务收入、系统项目；产品/服务=产品销售, 服务收入, 系统项目。
商业模式=通信设备；产业链定位=通信设备相关的产品销售、服务收入、系统项目业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20070813；上市年限=18.94；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=卫星导航, 北斗；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

产品销售: revenue=2087883307.67; profit=790510645.03.
服务收入: revenue=81744979.70; profit=19497007.85.
系统项目: revenue=42974589.12; profit=-27955786.74.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=2212602876.49; revenue_yoy=47.67%; parent_net_profit=-257153393.87; parent_net_profit_yoy=-26.47%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=393194496.34.
20241231: revenue=1498314842.99; revenue_yoy=-63.30%; parent_net_profit=-349741341.06; parent_net_profit_yoy=-316.98%; deduct_profit=-416616931.74; gross_margin=34.20%; net_margin=-26.72%; ROE=-6.56%; OCF=-77949908.83.
20231231: revenue=4082214536.44; revenue_yoy=6.97%; parent_net_profit=161185276.28; parent_net_profit_yoy=11.00%; deduct_profit=-362690418.71; gross_margin=21.70%; net_margin=-1.37%; ROE=3.26%; OCF=-213009630.75.
20221231: revenue=3816077696.79; revenue_yoy=-0.90%; parent_net_profit=145215509.23; parent_net_profit_yoy=-28.31%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-238701344.19.
20211231: revenue=3850666849.49; revenue_yoy=6.24%; parent_net_profit=202572172.21; parent_net_profit_yoy=38.22%; deduct_profit=130959163.64; gross_margin=29.23%; net_margin=5.04%; ROE=4.68%; OCF=304902936.43.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=615100660.92; parent_net_profit=13555430.13; single_quarter_revenue=615100660.92; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=13555430.13.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=1506577218.50; parent_net_profit=18106688.14; single_quarter_revenue=614468086.36; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16688661.67.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=892109132.14; parent_net_profit=1418026.47; single_quarter_revenue=573867279.71; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=31040307.79.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=318241852.43; parent_net_profit=-29622281.32; single_quarter_revenue=318241852.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-29622281.32.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1062688466.89; parent_net_profit=-63663519.18; single_quarter_revenue=374683087.89; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-19697951.11.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=688005379.00; parent_net_profit=-43965568.07; single_quarter_revenue=407928919.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2288132.44.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=280076459.38; parent_net_profit=-46253700.51; single_quarter_revenue=280076459.38; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-46253700.51.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=3141228957.97; parent_net_profit=24306407.36; single_quarter_revenue=1092611014.92; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-16264690.92.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.46; non-recurring effect=7324940.29.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-2.01; inventory growth=47.48%; receivable growth=-22.15%.
Inventory=856509976.83; receivables=551783378.61; debt ratio=18.62%; interest-bearing debt=99720695.83; cash coverage=4.89.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.12multiple; PS_TTM=6.01multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=valuation formula:pe_ttm; periods=20251231,20260331,20250331; impact=PE_TTM_ACTUAL cannot be used for comparison; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=valuation formula:pe_static; periods=20251231; impact=PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL cannot be used for comparison; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 北斗星通: 北斗星通 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SATELLITE_NAVIGATION_CORE; cycle drivers=卫星导航, 北斗.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

分时结构未纳入本次裁决。
涨跌停概率模型仅作辅助背景，不作为本次深度报告硬门禁。
bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=26.86; MA5/10/20/60/120=28.39/29.45/30.61/35.33/38.81.
20/60/120/250-day high=33.94/44.85/50.48/66.90; low=26.15/26.15/26.15/26.15.
drawdown=-59.85%; volume_percentile=36.80%; RSI14=35.10; ATR14=1.84; volatility20=3.87%.
support=26.15; resistance=33.94.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 3.46% | 565873.88 | 9858.10 | 1.74% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 9858.10 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=卫星导航; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=北斗; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

北斗星通 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
北斗星通 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
北斗星通 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
北斗星通 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=北斗星通: 卫星导航 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=北斗星通: 卫星导航 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=北斗星通: 北斗星通 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=27.97.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

北斗星通: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002151_北斗星通_20260722