000400 许继电气 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=许继电气; 证券代码=000400.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=充换电设备及其它制造服务、新能源及系统集成、智能中压供用电设备、智能变配电系统、智能电表；产品/服务=充换电设备及其它制造服务, 新能源及系统集成, 智能中压供用电设备, 智能变配电系统, 智能电表, 直流输电系统。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的充换电设备及其它制造服务、新能源及系统集成、智能中压供用电设备、智能变配电系统、智能电表业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=19970418；上市年限=29.26；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电网设备, 电力自动化；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

充换电设备及其它制造服务: revenue=1350616428.71; profit=230408663.50.
新能源及系统集成: revenue=1420822220.82; profit=196056854.28.
智能中压供用电设备: revenue=3150235573.07; profit=695194949.84.
智能变配电系统: revenue=4106566461.80; profit=1212111736.04.
智能电表: revenue=3945506302.78; profit=834839086.04.
直流输电系统: revenue=1018159079.06; profit=333079398.37.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=14991906066.24; revenue_yoy=-12.27%; parent_net_profit=1167210009.73; parent_net_profit_yoy=4.50%; deduct_profit=1121788879.27; gross_margin=23.36%; net_margin=8.75%; ROE=9.96%; OCF=2670382574.97.
20241231: revenue=17089133346.79; revenue_yoy=0.17%; parent_net_profit=1116925147.02; parent_net_profit_yoy=11.09%; deduct_profit=1061890917.40; gross_margin=20.77%; net_margin=7.56%; ROE=10.15%; OCF=1298911206.62.
20231231: revenue=17060896563.04; revenue_yoy=14.37%; parent_net_profit=1005384610.79; parent_net_profit_yoy=32.42%; deduct_profit=869065456.59; gross_margin=18.00%; net_margin=6.95%; ROE=9.67%; OCF=2748163854.51.
20221231: revenue=14917449398.19; revenue_yoy=24.41%; parent_net_profit=759217152.98; parent_net_profit_yoy=4.81%; deduct_profit=712939702.87; gross_margin=19.04%; net_margin=6.50%; ROE=7.79%; OCF=1731508402.78.
20211231: revenue=11990697379.23; revenue_yoy=7.14%; parent_net_profit=724373048.45; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.17%; deduct_profit=668198586.91; gross_margin=20.58%; net_margin=7.15%; ROE=8.01%; OCF=1304357104.76.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=2377751582.79; parent_net_profit=111046230.14; single_quarter_revenue=2377751582.79; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=111046230.14.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=9453514648.58; parent_net_profit=901434290.70; single_quarter_revenue=3006319391.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=267518913.63.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=6447195257.35; parent_net_profit=633915377.07; single_quarter_revenue=4099043424.49; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=426335184.51.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=2348151832.86; parent_net_profit=207580192.56; single_quarter_revenue=2348151832.86; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=207580192.56.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=9586051242.34; parent_net_profit=894693268.75; single_quarter_revenue=2750482449.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=266835047.50.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=6835568793.06; parent_net_profit=627858221.25; single_quarter_revenue=4026039217.05; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=390702060.38.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=2809529576.01; parent_net_profit=237156160.87; single_quarter_revenue=2809529576.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=237156160.87.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=10663887449.02; parent_net_profit=772074066.89; single_quarter_revenue=3549626377.85; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=223744315.07.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.97; non-recurring effect=3682871.78.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-1.74; inventory growth=47.30%; receivable growth=-26.54%.
Inventory=3895098151.84; receivables=6460074718.31; debt ratio=47.59%; interest-bearing debt=439506360.70; cash coverage=16.53.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=20.83multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=19.10multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=1.82multiple; PS_TTM=1.48multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=20.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=18.11multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=29.75multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 许继电气: 许继电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=POWER_GRID_CORE; cycle drivers=电网设备, 电力自动化.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华菱线缆: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=21.96; MA5/10/20/60/120=20.52/20.33/20.98/23.83/26.83.
20/60/120/250-day high=23.46/27.96/34.65/34.65; low=19.37/19.37/19.37/19.37.
drawdown=-36.62%; volume_percentile=55.60%; RSI14=52.44; ATR14=0.70; volatility20=2.28%.
support=19.37; resistance=23.46.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | -0.32% | 778031.04 | 1516.71 | 0.19% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 1516.71 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电网设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电力自动化; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

许继电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
许继电气 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
许继电气 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
许继电气 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=许继电气: 电网设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=许继电气: 电网设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=许继电气: 许继电气 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

许继电气: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

000400_许继电气_20260722