920088 科力股份 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 补数后重跑.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=科力股份; 证券代码=920088.BJ; 板块=BSE；市场=北交所。
行业=石油开采；主营分部=其他业务、技术服务、油气开发、设备销售、销售产品；产品/服务=其他业务, 技术服务, 油气开发, 设备销售, 销售产品。
商业模式=以已披露的其他业务、技术服务、油气开发、设备销售、销售产品分部开展产品销售和服务；产业链定位=石油开采相关的其他业务、技术服务、油气开发、设备销售、销售产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20241029；上市年限=1.72；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=石油开采, 其他业务, 技术服务, 油气开发, 设备销售, 销售产品；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。
历史边界：上市历史不足五年，跨周期可比财务与经营历史可能有限，应以已披露期间为准。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=7057544.87; profit=5229975.23.
技术服务: revenue=355403229.17; profit=96352058.81.
油气开发: revenue=9711269.66; profit=5499534.78.
设备销售: revenue=7983707.08; profit=1433956.61.
销售产品: revenue=66293787.99; profit=30946932.47.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=446449538.77; revenue_yoy=17.61%; parent_net_profit=56570938.39; parent_net_profit_yoy=5.22%; deduct_profit=53783580.22; gross_margin=31.24%; net_margin=13.90%; ROE=8.43%; OCF=94601920.19.
20241231: revenue=379612425.69; revenue_yoy=5.88%; parent_net_profit=53763424.52; parent_net_profit_yoy=3.26%; deduct_profit=41794655.75; gross_margin=36.16%; net_margin=15.15%; ROE=9.87%; OCF=144768591.27.
20231231: revenue=358545693.01; revenue_yoy=-19.73%; parent_net_profit=52066103.42; parent_net_profit_yoy=13.61%; deduct_profit=43586191.11; gross_margin=33.46%; net_margin=15.23%; ROE=12.54%; OCF=61208298.34.
20221231: revenue=446690018.87; revenue_yoy=NOT_AVAILABLE (20211231); parent_net_profit=45826815.77; parent_net_profit_yoy=NOT_AVAILABLE (20211231); deduct_profit=43369863.84; gross_margin=23.84%; net_margin=11.26%; ROE=12.26%; OCF=55654349.14.
20211231: revenue=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); revenue_yoy=NOT_AVAILABLE (20201231); parent_net_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); parent_net_profit_yoy=NOT_AVAILABLE (20201231); deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=90516266.01; parent_net_profit=4348484.44; single_quarter_revenue=90516266.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=4348484.44.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=286833558.40; parent_net_profit=30356441.68; single_quarter_revenue=99404135.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3184679.17.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=187429423.27; parent_net_profit=27171762.51; single_quarter_revenue=112641642.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=12733234.90.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=74787780.47; parent_net_profit=14438527.61; single_quarter_revenue=74787780.47; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=14438527.61.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=230983817.03; parent_net_profit=33915790.18; single_quarter_revenue=76048492.09; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=9750802.32.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=154935324.94; parent_net_profit=24164987.86; single_quarter_revenue=91812144.47; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=15594139.03.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=63123180.47; parent_net_profit=8570848.83; single_quarter_revenue=63123180.47; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=8570848.83.
20230630 cumulative: revenue=137085532.02; parent_net_profit=17751877.03; single_quarter_revenue=137085532.02; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=17751877.03.
Limitation: interface=DARB income/fina_indicator history; periods=20211231; impact=five-year trend contains explicit source-missing annual rows; blocks_module=NO.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.94; non-recurring effect=240371.67.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-6.62; inventory growth=10.26%; receivable growth=4.90%.
Inventory=66002514.35; receivables=139018778.76; debt ratio=23.67%; interest-bearing debt=112888807.06; cash coverage=3.59.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=94.02multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=77.25multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=6.24multiple; PS_TTM=9.46multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=94.02multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=81.76multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=134.31multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 科力股份: 资金和技术未同步确认 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=石油开采; cycle drivers=石油开采 industry demand, pricing, and profitability evidence.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
蓝焰控股: comparability=1.0; match=controlled stock_basic exact industry match: 石油开采; mismatch=none.
*ST准油: comparability=1.0; match=controlled stock_basic exact industry match: 石油开采; mismatch=none.
惠博普: comparability=1.0; match=controlled stock_basic exact industry match: 石油开采; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=55.00; MA5/10/20/60/120=47.63/42.37/38.07/41.03/49.36.
20/60/120/250-day high=57.00/57.00/98.69/98.69; low=31.08/31.08/31.08/29.00.
drawdown=-44.27%; volume_percentile=90.00%; RSI14=73.88; ATR14=4.85; volatility20=9.09%.
support=31.08; resistance=57.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:|

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: NOT_AVAILABLE / NOT_AVAILABLE / NOT_AVAILABLE / NOT_AVAILABLE / NOT_AVAILABLE.
Limitation: interface=moneyflow; periods=none; impact=Beijing Exchange source contract excludes moneyflow; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=石油开采 industry demand, pricing, and profitability evidence; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

Limitation: interface=controlled current-run risk section; periods=none; impact=issuer-specific risk linkage is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

情景推演

Bull case=科力股份: 石油开采 industry demand, pricing, and profitability evidence improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=科力股份: 石油开采 industry demand, pricing, and profitability evidence remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=科力股份: 资金和技术未同步确认 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: moneyflow is not applicable under the BSE source contract; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 资金和技术未同步确认.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

科力股份: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

920088_科力股份_20260722