688981 中芯国际 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 可研究参与.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中芯国际; 证券代码=688981.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=其他-其他、集成电路晶圆代工；产品/服务=其他-其他, 集成电路晶圆代工。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的其他-其他、集成电路晶圆代工业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20200716；上市年限=6.01；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他-其他: revenue=4529149000.00; profit=1214303000.00.
集成电路晶圆代工: revenue=62794043000.00; profit=13343766000.00.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=67323192000.00; revenue_yoy=16.49%; parent_net_profit=5040734000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=36.29%; deduct_profit=4124287000.00; gross_margin=21.62%; net_margin=10.71%; ROE=3.37%; OCF=20080979000.00.
20241231: revenue=57795570000.00; revenue_yoy=27.72%; parent_net_profit=3698665000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-23.31%; deduct_profit=2645419000.00; gross_margin=18.59%; net_margin=9.30%; ROE=2.54%; OCF=22658629000.00.
20231231: revenue=45250425000.00; revenue_yoy=-8.61%; parent_net_profit=4822814000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-60.25%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=23047761000.00.
20221231: revenue=49516084000.00; revenue_yoy=38.97%; parent_net_profit=12133079000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=13.04%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=36591209000.00.
20211231: revenue=35630634000.00; revenue_yoy=29.70%; parent_net_profit=10733098000.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=147.75%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=20844994000.00.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=17617218000.00; parent_net_profit=1361209000.00; single_quarter_revenue=17617218000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1361209000.00.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=49510416000.00; parent_net_profit=3818071000.00; single_quarter_revenue=17162367000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1517205000.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=32348049000.00; parent_net_profit=2300866000.00; single_quarter_revenue=16046964000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=944492000.00.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=16301085000.00; parent_net_profit=1356374000.00; single_quarter_revenue=16301085000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1356374000.00.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=41878720000.00; parent_net_profit=2706192000.00; single_quarter_revenue=15609410000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1059907000.00.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=26269310000.00; parent_net_profit=1646285000.00; single_quarter_revenue=13675528000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1137326000.00.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=12593782000.00; parent_net_profit=508959000.00; single_quarter_revenue=12593782000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=508959000.00.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=33098244000.00; parent_net_profit=3674784000.00; single_quarter_revenue=11780454000.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=677519000.00.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=3.77; inventory growth=27.62%; receivable growth=109.91%.
Inventory=27142311000.00; receivables=6134838000.00; debt ratio=34.89%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=271.73multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=271.73multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=9.08multiple; PS_TTM=20.35multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=271.73multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=236.29multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=388.19multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中芯国际: 中芯国际 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=144.00; MA5/10/20/60/120=150.06/154.74/151.95/135.69/122.48.
20/60/120/250-day high=176.34/176.34/176.34/176.34; low=135.26/104.61/91.20/84.86.
drawdown=-18.34%; volume_percentile=80.40%; RSI14=41.73; ATR14=13.46; volatility20=5.14%.
support=135.26; resistance=176.34.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 11.11% | 17265064.64 | 121036.95 | 0.70% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 121036.95 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中芯国际 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中芯国际 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中芯国际 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中芯国际 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中芯国际: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中芯国际: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中芯国际: 中芯国际 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中芯国际: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688981_中芯国际_20260722