688380 中微半导 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中微半导; 证券代码=688380.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=其他业务、大家电和工业控制芯片、小家电控制芯片、汽车电子芯片、消费电子芯片；产品/服务=其他业务, 大家电和工业控制芯片, 小家电控制芯片, 汽车电子芯片, 消费电子芯片。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的其他业务、大家电和工业控制芯片、小家电控制芯片、汽车电子芯片、消费电子芯片业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20220805；上市年限=3.96；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。
历史边界：上市历史不足五年，跨周期可比财务与经营历史可能有限，应以已披露期间为准。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=1357068.28; profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
大家电和工业控制芯片: revenue=266542108.47; profit=106852315.87.
小家电控制芯片: revenue=334124952.34; profit=122793640.56.
汽车电子芯片: revenue=53444317.07; profit=24492935.15.
消费电子芯片: revenue=466681607.70; profit=129196569.85.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=1122150053.86; revenue_yoy=23.09%; parent_net_profit=284181478.86; parent_net_profit_yoy=107.68%; deduct_profit=169067263.28; gross_margin=34.28%; net_margin=25.32%; ROE=9.21%; OCF=260477632.74.
20241231: revenue=911654675.00; revenue_yoy=27.76%; parent_net_profit=136833872.76; parent_net_profit_yoy=-723.43%; deduct_profit=91174716.23; gross_margin=29.86%; net_margin=15.01%; ROE=4.59%; OCF=312850036.90.
20231231: revenue=713569748.57; revenue_yoy=12.06%; parent_net_profit=-21948515.62; parent_net_profit_yoy=-137.09%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=20713377.38.
20221231: revenue=636793746.12; revenue_yoy=-42.58%; parent_net_profit=59177336.48; parent_net_profit_yoy=-92.46%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-280037854.20.
20211231: revenue=1109030496.41; revenue_yoy=193.68%; parent_net_profit=785047931.54; parent_net_profit_yoy=737.92%; deduct_profit=538417952.74; gross_margin=68.94%; net_margin=70.79%; ROE=85.01%; OCF=449287951.10.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=325179531.86; parent_net_profit=51248390.83; single_quarter_revenue=325179531.86; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=51248390.83.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=773013040.56; parent_net_profit=152288075.22; single_quarter_revenue=269052171.54; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=65818511.01.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=503960869.02; parent_net_profit=86469564.21; single_quarter_revenue=297462701.18; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=52049327.20.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=206498167.84; parent_net_profit=34420237.01; single_quarter_revenue=206498167.84; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=34420237.01.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=649434483.19; parent_net_profit=111338107.92; single_quarter_revenue=220749743.14; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=68315910.26.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=428684740.05; parent_net_profit=43022197.66; single_quarter_revenue=223255781.46; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=14194929.75.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=205428958.59; parent_net_profit=28827267.91; single_quarter_revenue=205428958.59; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=28827267.91.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=463767795.93; parent_net_profit=-5927874.27; single_quarter_revenue=175555774.15; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-32468133.24.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=1.35; non-recurring effect=-17792127.62.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.76; inventory growth=-12.88%; receivable growth=27.67%.
Inventory=327626351.89; receivables=197542411.86; debt ratio=8.13%; interest-bearing debt=5486505.97; cash coverage=36.19.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=51.54multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=54.59multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=4.81multiple; PS_TTM=12.50multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=51.54multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=44.82multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=73.63multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中微半导: 中微半导 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=35.92; MA5/10/20/60/120=45.08/52.35/56.04/50.69/48.87.
20/60/120/250-day high=66.98/66.98/66.98/66.98; low=34.38/34.38/34.38/26.30.
drawdown=-46.37%; volume_percentile=74.00%; RSI14=17.32; ATR14=5.36; volatility20=7.27%.
support=34.38; resistance=66.98.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 7.88% | 875082.74 | 12005.97 | 1.37% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 12005.97 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中微半导 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中微半导 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中微半导 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中微半导 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中微半导: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中微半导: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中微半导: 中微半导 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=41.90.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中微半导: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688380_中微半导_20260722