688233 神工股份 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=神工股份; 证券代码=688233.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=16寸以上、16寸以下、停工损失、其他业务、半导体大尺寸硅片；产品/服务=16寸以上, 16寸以下, 停工损失, 其他业务, 半导体大尺寸硅片, 硅零部件及其他。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的16寸以上、16寸以下、停工损失、其他业务、半导体大尺寸硅片业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20200221；上市年限=6.41；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

16寸以上: revenue=106719691.88; profit=81200344.44.
16寸以下: revenue=81432358.24; profit=50268381.54.
停工损失: revenue=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
其他业务: revenue=2344131.42; profit=993708.48.
半导体大尺寸硅片: revenue=10331071.61; profit=-945293.12.
硅零部件及其他: revenue=237171645.10; profit=128137173.26.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=437998898.25; revenue_yoy=44.68%; parent_net_profit=102037073.61; parent_net_profit_yoy=147.96%; deduct_profit=100322432.25; gross_margin=44.75%; net_margin=27.98%; ROE=5.54%; OCF=173261951.48.
20241231: revenue=302729514.81; revenue_yoy=124.19%; parent_net_profit=41150745.84; parent_net_profit_yoy=-159.54%; deduct_profit=38343442.86; gross_margin=33.69%; net_margin=15.44%; ROE=2.32%; OCF=172929764.60.
20231231: revenue=135033152.23; revenue_yoy=-74.96%; parent_net_profit=-69109826.01; parent_net_profit_yoy=-143.70%; deduct_profit=-71555263.79; gross_margin=0.09%; net_margin=-51.97%; ROE=-4.14%; OCF=82209545.12.
20221231: revenue=539236503.68; revenue_yoy=13.79%; parent_net_profit=158141626.89; parent_net_profit_yoy=-27.60%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=130146507.24.
20211231: revenue=473890118.61; revenue_yoy=146.69%; parent_net_profit=218442472.45; parent_net_profit_yoy=117.84%; deduct_profit=214126167.39; gross_margin=64.07%; net_margin=46.10%; ROE=16.64%; OCF=189125285.87.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=112422797.83; parent_net_profit=25385255.30; single_quarter_revenue=112422797.83; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=25385255.30.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=315999833.19; parent_net_profit=71169575.04; single_quarter_revenue=107472139.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=22331646.38.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=208527693.79; parent_net_profit=48837928.66; single_quarter_revenue=102683378.88; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=20327254.57.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=105844314.91; parent_net_profit=28510674.09; single_quarter_revenue=105844314.91; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=28510674.09.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=214109500.58; parent_net_profit=27485960.68; single_quarter_revenue=88889623.82; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=22723860.58.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=125219876.76; parent_net_profit=4762100.10; single_quarter_revenue=66899605.07; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3300536.21.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=58320271.69; parent_net_profit=1461563.89; single_quarter_revenue=58320271.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1461563.89.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=119180000.99; parent_net_profit=-41204892.94; single_quarter_revenue=40345177.56; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-17505446.82.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.99; inventory growth=-23.82%; receivable growth=26.23%.
Inventory=83728855.23; receivables=115897566.29; debt ratio=5.12%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=205.79multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=205.79multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=11.11multiple; PS_TTM=47.94multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=205.79multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=178.95multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=293.99multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 神工股份: 神工股份 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=108.80; MA5/10/20/60/120=130.04/153.12/166.69/117.05/99.21.
20/60/120/250-day high=247.00/247.00/247.00/247.00; low=106.13/66.71/66.70/30.70.
drawdown=-55.95%; volume_percentile=92.00%; RSI14=23.78; ATR14=22.62; volatility20=9.90%.
support=106.13; resistance=247.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 13.33% | 2365653.21 | 38246.68 | 1.62% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 38246.68 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

神工股份 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
神工股份 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
神工股份 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
神工股份 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=神工股份: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=神工股份: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=神工股份: 神工股份 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=123.80.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

神工股份: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688233_神工股份_20260722