688017 绿的谐波 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=绿的谐波; 证券代码=688017.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=机械基件；主营分部=其他业务、智能自动化设备、机电一体化产品、谐波减速器及金属部件；产品/服务=其他业务, 智能自动化设备, 机电一体化产品, 谐波减速器及金属部件。
商业模式=机械基件；产业链定位=机械基件相关的其他业务、智能自动化设备、机电一体化产品、谐波减速器及金属部件业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20200828；上市年限=5.89；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=机器人, 工控；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=5034779.44; profit=3321478.80.
智能自动化设备: revenue=14889071.41; profit=1715928.53.
机电一体化产品: revenue=74303375.72; profit=30386001.15.
谐波减速器及金属部件: revenue=476486798.69; profit=175199476.67.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=570714025.26; revenue_yoy=47.31%; parent_net_profit=124366913.57; parent_net_profit_yoy=121.42%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=152003651.27.
20241231: revenue=387411303.84; revenue_yoy=8.77%; parent_net_profit=56168149.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=-33.26%; deduct_profit=46204927.65; gross_margin=37.54%; net_margin=14.41%; ROE=2.07%; OCF=27981461.73.
20231231: revenue=356165776.90; revenue_yoy=-20.10%; parent_net_profit=84155317.77; parent_net_profit_yoy=-45.81%; deduct_profit=74630297.18; gross_margin=41.14%; net_margin=23.82%; ROE=4.26%; OCF=149288530.45.
20221231: revenue=445745352.73; revenue_yoy=0.54%; parent_net_profit=155302486.16; parent_net_profit_yoy=-17.91%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=26152906.68.
20211231: revenue=443351434.70; revenue_yoy=104.77%; parent_net_profit=189183607.41; parent_net_profit_yoy=130.56%; deduct_profit=146908315.28; gross_margin=52.52%; net_margin=42.87%; ROE=10.77%; OCF=45588086.41.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=140134456.30; parent_net_profit=32634147.52; single_quarter_revenue=140134456.30; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=32634147.52.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=406652949.93; parent_net_profit=93667349.33; single_quarter_revenue=155241029.24; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=40250972.98.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=251411920.69; parent_net_profit=53416376.35; single_quarter_revenue=153385379.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=33167944.12.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=98026541.57; parent_net_profit=20248432.23; single_quarter_revenue=98026541.57; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=20248432.23.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=275955021.41; parent_net_profit=58832909.64; single_quarter_revenue=103547844.75; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=22214414.56.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=172407176.66; parent_net_profit=36618495.08; single_quarter_revenue=90480057.94; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16502679.69.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=81927118.72; parent_net_profit=20115815.39; single_quarter_revenue=81927118.72; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=20115815.39.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=254008574.38; parent_net_profit=72499639.68; single_quarter_revenue=82446604.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=21858540.59.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.17; inventory growth=21.11%; receivable growth=34.80%.
Inventory=297412321.77; receivables=197532664.46; debt ratio=9.44%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=658.08multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=1066.20multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=17.08multiple; PS_TTM=115.59multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=658.08multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=572.24multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=940.11multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 绿的谐波: 绿的谐波 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=ROBOTICS_CORE; cycle drivers=机器人, 工控.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中联重科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
徐工机械: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=300.88; MA5/10/20/60/120=355.71/382.74/395.40/339.07/274.05.
20/60/120/250-day high=495.66/495.66/495.66/495.66; low=287.00/200.60/176.10/116.67.
drawdown=-39.30%; volume_percentile=87.20%; RSI14=33.32; ATR14=46.15; volatility20=7.88%.
support=287.00; resistance=495.66.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 8.57% | 4218686.14 | 7799.84 | 0.18% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 7799.84 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=机器人; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=工控; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

绿的谐波 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
绿的谐波 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
绿的谐波 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
绿的谐波 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=绿的谐波: 机器人 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=绿的谐波: 机器人 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=绿的谐波: 绿的谐波 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=343.67.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

绿的谐波: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688017_绿的谐波_20260722