688012 中微公司 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=中微公司; 证券代码=688012.SH; 板块=STAR；市场=科创板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=半导体设备相关产品；产品/服务=半导体设备相关产品。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的半导体设备相关产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20190722；上市年限=7.0；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设备, 国产替代；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

半导体设备相关产品: revenue=12384638268.11; profit=4850499252.55.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=12384638268.11; revenue_yoy=36.62%; parent_net_profit=2111472990.43; parent_net_profit_yoy=30.69%; deduct_profit=1549796388.43; gross_margin=39.17%; net_margin=16.67%; ROE=9.95%; OCF=2295352919.08.
20241231: revenue=9065165097.69; revenue_yoy=44.73%; parent_net_profit=1615675746.81; parent_net_profit_yoy=-9.53%; deduct_profit=1388153354.14; gross_margin=41.06%; net_margin=17.81%; ROE=8.60%; OCF=1458401788.71.
20231231: revenue=6263513581.37; revenue_yoy=32.15%; parent_net_profit=1785907974.46; parent_net_profit_yoy=52.67%; deduct_profit=1191434841.55; gross_margin=45.83%; net_margin=28.48%; ROE=10.72%; OCF=-976926439.66.
20221231: revenue=4739830997.55; revenue_yoy=52.50%; parent_net_profit=1169792388.77; parent_net_profit_yoy=15.66%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=617523432.12.
20211231: revenue=3108134730.67; revenue_yoy=36.72%; parent_net_profit=1011423670.06; parent_net_profit_yoy=105.49%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1016256088.40.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=2914986518.73; parent_net_profit=930487319.17; single_quarter_revenue=2914986518.73; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=930487319.17.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=8062565115.42; parent_net_profit=1211192400.82; single_quarter_revenue=3101963845.38; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=505275864.48.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=4960601270.04; parent_net_profit=705916536.34; single_quarter_revenue=2787322884.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=392834078.62.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=2173278385.62; parent_net_profit=313082457.72; single_quarter_revenue=2173278385.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=313082457.72.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5507194599.46; parent_net_profit=912979678.37; single_quarter_revenue=2059481848.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=396285695.95.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=3447712750.84; parent_net_profit=516693982.42; single_quarter_revenue=1842688653.16; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=267558201.85.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1605024097.68; parent_net_profit=249135780.57; single_quarter_revenue=1605024097.68; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=249135780.57.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=4041266479.18; parent_net_profit=1159835796.60; single_quarter_revenue=1514765467.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=156866342.92.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.51; non-recurring effect=452928573.00.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.17; inventory growth=3.13%; receivable growth=89.74%.
Inventory=7258850178.53; receivables=2565956704.81; debt ratio=22.18%; interest-bearing debt=752252664.06; cash coverage=10.50.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=143.17multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=185.03multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=16.07multiple; PS_TTM=29.76multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=143.17multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=124.50multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=204.53multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 中微公司: 中微公司 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_EQUIPMENT_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设备, 国产替代.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兵红箭: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
创元科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=342.50; MA5/10/20/60/120=370.24/400.89/410.28/380.59/356.22.
20/60/120/250-day high=500.00/533.33/533.33/533.33; low=332.99/261.60/261.60/174.76.
drawdown=-35.78%; volume_percentile=93.20%; RSI14=24.94; ATR14=38.81; volatility20=5.52%.
support=332.99; resistance=500.00.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 19.09% | 16645555.54 | 121211.41 | 0.73% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 121211.41 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=国产替代; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

中微公司 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
中微公司 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
中微公司 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
中微公司 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=中微公司: 半导体设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=中微公司: 半导体设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=中微公司: 中微公司 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA20=412.09.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

中微公司: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

688012_中微公司_20260722