603986 兆易创新 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=兆易创新; 证券代码=603986.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=存储芯片 / MCU / Fabless半导体设计；主营分部=传感器、存储芯片、微控制器、技术服务及其他、模拟产品；产品/服务=传感器, 存储芯片, 微控制器, 技术服务及其他, 模拟产品。
商业模式=存储与MCU等Fabless芯片设计；产业链定位=存储芯片 / MCU / Fabless半导体设计相关的传感器、存储芯片、微控制器、技术服务及其他、模拟产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20160818；上市年限=9.92；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=存储, MCU, Fabless半导体设计；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

传感器: revenue=389354949.48; profit=76196108.58.
存储芯片: revenue=6565939969.50; profit=2813070149.96.
微控制器: revenue=1909897922.87; profit=684132295.02.
技术服务及其他: revenue=5426682.16; profit=4861335.63.
模拟产品: revenue=332843600.57; profit=123023143.47.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=9203463124.58; revenue_yoy=25.12%; parent_net_profit=1648022651.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=49.47%; deduct_profit=1469196552.72; gross_margin=40.22%; net_margin=18.23%; ROE=9.28%; OCF=2128504212.49.
20241231: revenue=7355977677.11; revenue_yoy=27.69%; parent_net_profit=1102542801.68; parent_net_profit_yoy=584.21%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2032230237.01.
20231231: revenue=5760823414.65; revenue_yoy=-29.14%; parent_net_profit=161141224.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=-92.15%; deduct_profit=27400630.30; gross_margin=34.42%; net_margin=2.80%; ROE=1.06%; OCF=1186749309.93.
20221231: revenue=8129992424.99; revenue_yoy=-4.47%; parent_net_profit=2052568326.42; parent_net_profit_yoy=-12.16%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=949691135.59.
20211231: revenue=8510223468.73; revenue_yoy=89.25%; parent_net_profit=2336793535.26; parent_net_profit_yoy=165.33%; deduct_profit=2224461333.80; gross_margin=46.54%; net_margin=27.46%; ROE=19.33%; OCF=2262070086.82.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=4188075574.04; parent_net_profit=1461248353.08; single_quarter_revenue=4188075574.04; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1461248353.08.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=6831634443.78; parent_net_profit=1083227880.04; single_quarter_revenue=2681325810.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=507752274.22.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=4150308632.88; parent_net_profit=575475605.82; single_quarter_revenue=2241246342.27; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=340845518.40.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1909062290.61; parent_net_profit=234630087.42; single_quarter_revenue=1909062290.61; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=234630087.42.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5649596831.40; parent_net_profit=832112528.83; single_quarter_revenue=2040559511.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=315112515.15.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=3609037320.17; parent_net_profit=517000013.68; single_quarter_revenue=1981767352.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=312214093.06.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1627269967.75; parent_net_profit=204785920.62; single_quarter_revenue=1627269967.75; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=204785920.62.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=4394487650.70; parent_net_profit=433675509.91; single_quarter_revenue=1428675586.88; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=97693933.50.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.96; non-recurring effect=51184068.88.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.22; inventory growth=44.97%; receivable growth=35.15%.
Inventory=3401438660.14; receivables=286540329.23; debt ratio=8.13%; interest-bearing debt=96352783.70; cash coverage=152.50.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=116.08multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=202.49multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=13.20multiple; PS_TTM=29.06multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=116.08multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=100.94multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=165.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 兆易创新: 存储价格回落 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=存储芯片 / MCU / Fabless半导体设计; cycle drivers=存储价格与供需, MCU出货, 产品结构, 库存周期.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
北京君正: comparability=1.0; match=存储及MCU芯片设计业务重合; mismatch=none.
普冉股份: comparability=1.0; match=NOR Flash/存储芯片设计业务重合; mismatch=none.
东芯股份: comparability=1.0; match=存储芯片设计及存储周期暴露相近; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=432.30; MA5/10/20/60/120=513.17/561.53/648.02/507.25/396.00.
20/60/120/250-day high=846.66/846.66/846.66/846.66; low=416.88/292.81/236.86/113.82.
drawdown=-48.94%; volume_percentile=92.00%; RSI14=16.41; ATR14=64.47; volatility20=7.00%.
support=416.88; resistance=846.66.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 33087873.79 | 154954.50 | 0.47% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 154954.50 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=存储价格与供需; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=MCU出货; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=产品结构; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=库存周期; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

兆易创新 specific risk: 存储价格回落; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
兆易创新 specific risk: 库存去化不及预期; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
兆易创新 specific risk: 产品组合波动; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
兆易创新 specific risk: 研发与竞争压力; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
兆易创新 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
兆易创新 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
兆易创新 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
兆易创新 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=兆易创新: 存储价格与供需 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=兆易创新: 存储价格与供需 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=兆易创新: 存储价格回落 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=491.48.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

兆易创新: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

603986_兆易创新_20260722