603629 利通电子 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 冷却观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=利通电子; 证券代码=603629.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=其他业务、其他模具收入、电子元器件产品、算力设备销售业务、精密金属冲压结构件；产品/服务=其他业务, 其他模具收入, 电子元器件产品, 算力设备销售业务, 精密金属冲压结构件。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的其他业务、其他模具收入、电子元器件产品、算力设备销售业务、精密金属冲压结构件业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20181224；上市年限=7.57；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电子制造, 算力租赁, 事件观察；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=41698698.63; profit=17915534.24.
其他模具收入: revenue=60242594.71; profit=2426620.41.
电子元器件产品: revenue=136944933.69; profit=19367325.26.
算力设备销售业务: revenue=1199585316.90; profit=596024106.52.
精密金属冲压结构件: revenue=1868928226.87; profit=184379725.08.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=3307399770.80; revenue_yoy=47.16%; parent_net_profit=292589095.99; parent_net_profit_yoy=1088.59%; deduct_profit=235942443.22; gross_margin=24.80%; net_margin=8.89%; ROE=16.24%; OCF=937611739.53.
20241231: revenue=2247559790.70; revenue_yoy=18.72%; parent_net_profit=24616404.40; parent_net_profit_yoy=-38.77%; deduct_profit=5889127.08; gross_margin=18.36%; net_margin=1.18%; ROE=1.49%; OCF=74844110.23.
20231231: revenue=1893119459.75; revenue_yoy=-6.53%; parent_net_profit=40202342.48; parent_net_profit_yoy=-39.01%; deduct_profit=20378142.45; gross_margin=16.09%; net_margin=2.06%; ROE=2.45%; OCF=732405001.47.
20221231: revenue=2025425217.56; revenue_yoy=12.24%; parent_net_profit=65916492.05; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.20%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=154935292.81.
20211231: revenue=1804495655.47; revenue_yoy=9.52%; parent_net_profit=57718261.85; parent_net_profit_yoy=24.50%; deduct_profit=32694092.00; gross_margin=15.93%; net_margin=3.17%; ROE=4.46%; OCF=76103283.30.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=997438307.30; parent_net_profit=271272956.39; single_quarter_revenue=997438307.30; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=271272956.39.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=2462598973.70; parent_net_profit=215947577.93; single_quarter_revenue=946345692.66; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=164868401.17.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=1516253281.04; parent_net_profit=51079176.76; single_quarter_revenue=811911262.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=21627665.12.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=704342018.65; parent_net_profit=29451511.64; single_quarter_revenue=704342018.65; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=29451511.64.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=1490845713.40; parent_net_profit=52700455.95; single_quarter_revenue=602420941.57; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=10755324.91.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=888424771.83; parent_net_profit=41945131.04; single_quarter_revenue=460574521.38; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=8849837.59.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=427850250.45; parent_net_profit=33095293.45; single_quarter_revenue=427850250.45; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=33095293.45.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=1442333064.98; parent_net_profit=30627680.15; single_quarter_revenue=469592696.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3437131.37.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.03; non-recurring effect=-6959238.23.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=2.24; inventory growth=617.43%; receivable growth=18.15%.
Inventory=2718726839.84; receivables=832064874.92; debt ratio=75.10%; interest-bearing debt=3106752040.27; cash coverage=0.40.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=73.82multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=134.84multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=17.58multiple; PS_TTM=10.96multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=73.82multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=64.20multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=105.46multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 利通电子: 利通电子 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=EVENT_REVIEW_POOL; cycle drivers=电子制造, 算力租赁, 事件观察.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
神州数码: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中兴通讯: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
特发信息: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
常山北明: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=97.80; MA5/10/20/60/120=102.91/108.91/148.38/162.39/110.41.
20/60/120/250-day high=225.85/240.88/240.88/240.88; low=90.79/90.79/29.21/22.60.
drawdown=-59.40%; volume_percentile=82.40%; RSI14=26.32; ATR14=15.56; volatility20=9.98%.
support=90.79; resistance=225.85.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 3824670.43 | -7848.64 | -0.21% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -7848.64 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电子制造; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=算力租赁; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=事件观察; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

利通电子 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
利通电子 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
利通电子 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
利通电子 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=利通电子: 电子制造 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=利通电子: 电子制造 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=利通电子: 利通电子 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；资金持续派发，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=108.56.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

利通电子: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

603629_利通电子_20260722