600584 长电科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=长电科技; 证券代码=600584.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=其他业务、芯片封测；产品/服务=其他业务, 芯片封测。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的其他业务、芯片封测业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20030603；上市年限=23.13；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=157160331.18; profit=98594026.85.
芯片封测: revenue=38714188000.05; profit=5400689779.79.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=38871348331.23; revenue_yoy=8.09%; parent_net_profit=1565238036.45; parent_net_profit_yoy=-2.75%; deduct_profit=1369472054.89; gross_margin=14.15%; net_margin=4.04%; ROE=5.56%; OCF=4652212168.20.
20241231: revenue=35961679888.59; revenue_yoy=21.24%; parent_net_profit=1609575410.92; parent_net_profit_yoy=9.44%; deduct_profit=1547625265.49; gross_margin=13.06%; net_margin=4.48%; ROE=6.00%; OCF=5834047323.92.
20231231: revenue=29660960881.35; revenue_yoy=-12.15%; parent_net_profit=1470705571.95; parent_net_profit_yoy=-54.48%; deduct_profit=1322571351.51; gross_margin=13.65%; net_margin=4.96%; ROE=5.80%; OCF=4436698567.22.
20221231: revenue=33762028449.00; revenue_yoy=10.69%; parent_net_profit=3230988205.53; parent_net_profit_yoy=9.20%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=6012468403.84.
20211231: revenue=30502417851.52; revenue_yoy=15.26%; parent_net_profit=2958712532.84; parent_net_profit_yoy=126.83%; deduct_profit=2486571359.81; gross_margin=18.41%; net_margin=9.71%; ROE=17.21%; OCF=7428671369.12.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=9171039551.16; parent_net_profit=290272770.67; single_quarter_revenue=9171039551.16; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=290272770.67.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=28668972678.71; parent_net_profit=953748492.90; single_quarter_revenue=10063748622.38; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=482963225.04.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=18605224056.33; parent_net_profit=470785267.86; single_quarter_revenue=9270077569.34; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=267421705.14.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=9335146486.99; parent_net_profit=203363562.72; single_quarter_revenue=9335146486.99; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=203363562.72.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=24977909038.59; parent_net_profit=1076362902.49; single_quarter_revenue=9491365597.84; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=457080152.25.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=15486543440.75; parent_net_profit=619282750.24; single_quarter_revenue=8644517234.11; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=484056297.61.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=6842026206.64; parent_net_profit=135226452.63; single_quarter_revenue=6842026206.64; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=135226452.63.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=20429842531.27; parent_net_profit=973663350.81; single_quarter_revenue=8256991033.04; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=478073221.87.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=6.13; inventory growth=16.23%; receivable growth=-8.28%.
Inventory=4408030437.17; receivables=5315551681.58; debt ratio=43.01%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=96.82multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=96.82multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.29multiple; PS_TTM=3.90multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=96.82multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=84.19multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=138.31multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 长电科技: 长电科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=76.99; MA5/10/20/60/120=88.17/93.96/96.04/76.11/60.55.
20/60/120/250-day high=113.87/113.87/113.87/113.87; low=76.94/43.09/38.02/33.00.
drawdown=-32.39%; volume_percentile=87.20%; RSI14=34.12; ATR14=10.30; volatility20=6.76%.
support=76.94; resistance=113.87.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 20904684.93 | 189731.34 | 0.91% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 189731.34 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

长电科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
长电科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
长电科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
长电科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=长电科技: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=长电科技: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=长电科技: 长电科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=92.33.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

长电科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600584_长电科技_20260722