600111 北方稀土 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 周期位置观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=北方稀土; 证券代码=600111.SH; 板块=SH_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=小金属；主营分部=其他主营业务、材料销售、水电费转供收入、环保产业、稀土产品；产品/服务=其他主营业务, 材料销售, 水电费转供收入, 环保产业, 稀土产品, 经营租赁、劳务及其他, 贸易业务。
商业模式=小金属；产业链定位=小金属相关的其他主营业务、材料销售、水电费转供收入、环保产业、稀土产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=19970924；上市年限=28.82；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=稀土, 小金属；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他主营业务: revenue=164499044.37; profit=29124195.85.
材料销售: revenue=172308411.28; profit=114222674.39.
水电费转供收入: revenue=28311976.05; profit=1757895.52.
环保产业: revenue=1469594740.70; profit=344485887.55.
稀土产品: revenue=32922713390.74; profit=4549950664.82.
经营租赁、劳务及其他: revenue=11447242.22; profit=6716850.04.
贸易业务: revenue=7794208427.98; profit=149530945.39.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=42563083233.34; revenue_yoy=29.11%; parent_net_profit=2251272073.68; parent_net_profit_yoy=124.17%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1114870322.24.
20241231: revenue=32966314898.03; revenue_yoy=-1.58%; parent_net_profit=1004276921.89; parent_net_profit_yoy=-57.64%; deduct_profit=901307586.64; gross_margin=10.25%; net_margin=4.82%; ROE=4.56%; OCF=1025577551.59.
20231231: revenue=33496993130.09; revenue_yoy=-10.10%; parent_net_profit=2370740184.54; parent_net_profit_yoy=-60.38%; deduct_profit=2317962668.39; gross_margin=14.62%; net_margin=7.83%; ROE=11.44%; OCF=2427840898.31.
20221231: revenue=37260035781.21; revenue_yoy=22.53%; parent_net_profit=5983647410.40; parent_net_profit_yoy=16.64%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=4740861897.91.
20211231: revenue=30408396179.14; revenue_yoy=43.13%; parent_net_profit=5130043122.04; parent_net_profit_yoy=516.13%; deduct_profit=4966873529.50; gross_margin=27.84%; net_margin=18.45%; ROE=39.81%; OCF=3793560639.52.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=11858916345.03; parent_net_profit=917740662.20; single_quarter_revenue=11858916345.03; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=917740662.20.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=30291541849.48; parent_net_profit=1541335125.19; single_quarter_revenue=11425447505.21; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=610021613.40.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=18866094344.27; parent_net_profit=931313511.79; single_quarter_revenue=9579084332.08; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=500686548.80.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=9287010012.19; parent_net_profit=430626962.99; single_quarter_revenue=9287010012.19; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=430626962.99.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=21559694501.42; parent_net_profit=405324657.44; single_quarter_revenue=8569868301.31; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=359928459.05.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=12989826200.11; parent_net_profit=45396198.39; single_quarter_revenue=7228119204.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-6655841.81.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=5761706995.82; parent_net_profit=52052040.20; single_quarter_revenue=5761706995.82; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=52052040.20.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=24923133762.93; parent_net_profit=1380415212.59; single_quarter_revenue=8440047413.97; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=324429510.19.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.30; inventory growth=0.58%; receivable growth=55.65%.
Inventory=16068554241.47; receivables=5320966115.71; debt ratio=36.83%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=66.48multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=141.68multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=5.96multiple; PS_TTM=3.41multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=66.48multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=57.81multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=94.97multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 北方稀土: 北方稀土 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=RARE_EARTH_CORE; cycle drivers=稀土, 小金属.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
钒钛股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
合金投资: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中钨高新: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
西藏矿业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中国稀土: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
锡业股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方钽业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
安泰科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
中国铀业: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
西部材料: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=37.58; MA5/10/20/60/120=38.66/41.12/44.70/48.77/50.12.
20/60/120/250-day high=53.61/57.96/63.57/63.57; low=36.69/36.69/36.69/24.50.
drawdown=-40.88%; volume_percentile=7.60%; RSI14=14.94; ATR14=1.88; volatility20=2.94%.
support=36.69; resistance=53.61.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 4.74% | 3452370.87 | 60134.67 | 1.74% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 60134.67 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=稀土; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=小金属; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

北方稀土 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
北方稀土 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
北方稀土 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
北方稀土 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=北方稀土: 稀土 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=北方稀土: 稀土 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=北方稀土: 北方稀土 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA10=40.31.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

北方稀土: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

600111_北方稀土_20260722