300502 新易盛 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 重点关注.
Trade conclusion: 可研究参与.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=A-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=新易盛; 证券代码=300502.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=光模块 / 光通信；主营分部=光互联产品、其他主营业务；产品/服务=光互联产品, 其他主营业务。
商业模式=高速光模块与光器件；产业链定位=光模块 / 光通信相关的光互联产品、其他主营业务业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20160303；上市年限=10.38；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=光模块, 光器件, AI光通信；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

光互联产品: revenue=24771155676.88; profit=11843553782.27.
其他主营业务: revenue=70699163.34; profit=32251078.74.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=24841854840.22; revenue_yoy=187.29%; parent_net_profit=9531922730.17; parent_net_profit_yoy=235.89%; deduct_profit=9507308848.08; gross_margin=47.81%; net_margin=38.46%; ROE=72.62%; OCF=7701234651.00.
20241231: revenue=8646831134.32; revenue_yoy=179.15%; parent_net_profit=2837813624.37; parent_net_profit_yoy=312.26%; deduct_profit=2829774233.69; gross_margin=44.72%; net_margin=32.82%; ROE=41.15%; OCF=640930145.58.
20231231: revenue=3097605750.52; revenue_yoy=-6.43%; parent_net_profit=688361095.12; parent_net_profit_yoy=-23.82%; deduct_profit=677639230.06; gross_margin=30.99%; net_margin=22.22%; ROE=13.37%; OCF=1245984809.46.
20221231: revenue=3310573790.53; revenue_yoy=13.83%; parent_net_profit=903581090.81; parent_net_profit_yoy=36.51%; deduct_profit=783800736.37; gross_margin=36.66%; net_margin=27.29%; ROE=20.56%; OCF=831352211.86.
20211231: revenue=2908376063.76; revenue_yoy=45.57%; parent_net_profit=661926139.05; parent_net_profit_yoy=34.60%; deduct_profit=597638412.97; gross_margin=32.17%; net_margin=22.76%; ROE=17.88%; OCF=218531823.57.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=8337902040.74; parent_net_profit=2780222960.23; single_quarter_revenue=8337902040.74; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2780222960.23.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=16504791211.36; parent_net_profit=6327092507.84; single_quarter_revenue=6067620945.86; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2384798239.47.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=10437170265.50; parent_net_profit=3942294268.37; single_quarter_revenue=6384913727.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2369768479.15.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=4052256538.37; parent_net_profit=1572525789.22; single_quarter_revenue=4052256538.37; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1572525789.22.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5130435808.52; parent_net_profit=1646072871.21; single_quarter_revenue=2402761037.13; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=780930777.06.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=2727674771.39; parent_net_profit=865142094.15; single_quarter_revenue=1614820876.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=540601559.94.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1112853894.49; parent_net_profit=324540534.21; single_quarter_revenue=1112853894.49; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=324540534.21.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=2087047551.82; parent_net_profit=429563503.52; single_quarter_revenue=782363726.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=141198619.60.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.00; non-recurring effect=12247712.10.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.25; inventory growth=118.44%; receivable growth=119.29%.
Inventory=9026237850.72; receivables=5566729063.71; debt ratio=31.04%; interest-bearing debt=13715448.96; cash coverage=577.23.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=71.63multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=80.71multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=37.75multiple; PS_TTM=26.41multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=71.63multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=62.29multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=102.33multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 新易盛: 客户资本开支放缓 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=光模块 / 光通信; cycle drivers=高速率光模块出货, AI数据中心资本开支, 产品结构, 客户认证.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中际旭创: comparability=1.0; match=高速光模块产品和数据中心客户链条可比; mismatch=none.
光迅科技: comparability=1.0; match=光模块与光器件产品链条可比; mismatch=none.
天孚通信: comparability=1.0; match=高速光通信器件与光模块需求链条可比; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=510.00; MA5/10/20/60/120=532.06/526.23/541.37/594.20/511.82.
20/60/120/250-day high=618.87/818.38/818.38/818.38; low=452.96/452.96/346.74/129.35.
drawdown=-37.68%; volume_percentile=96.40%; RSI14=37.07; ATR14=45.60; volatility20=6.29%.
support=452.96; resistance=618.87.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 8.19% | 39883138.34 | 352510.98 | 0.88% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 352510.98 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=高速率光模块出货; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI数据中心资本开支; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=产品结构; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=客户认证; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

新易盛 specific risk: 客户资本开支放缓; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
新易盛 specific risk: 高速率产品迭代; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
新易盛 specific risk: 价格竞争; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
新易盛 specific risk: 客户集中度; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
新易盛 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
新易盛 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
新易盛 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
新易盛 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=新易盛: 高速率光模块出货 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=新易盛: 高速率光模块出货 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=新易盛: 客户资本开支放缓 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 趋势修复初步成立，重点看回踩 MA5/MA10 不破.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

新易盛: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300502_新易盛_20260722