300475 香农芯创 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=香农芯创; 证券代码=300475.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=其他业务、减速离合器、电子元器件业务、电子元器件分销；产品/服务=其他业务, 减速离合器, 电子元器件业务, 电子元器件分销。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的其他业务、减速离合器、电子元器件业务、电子元器件分销业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20150610；上市年限=11.11；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=27573977.47; profit=4276441.99.
减速离合器: revenue=342076156.05; profit=101549653.92.
电子元器件业务: revenue=1658312650.23; profit=346648050.41.
电子元器件分销: revenue=33222929646.02; profit=948687482.04.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=35250892429.77; revenue_yoy=45.24%; parent_net_profit=544594132.23; parent_net_profit_yoy=106.23%; deduct_profit=518963883.72; gross_margin=3.97%; net_margin=1.97%; ROE=16.73%; OCF=1438446251.44.
20241231: revenue=24271110536.82; revenue_yoy=115.40%; parent_net_profit=264071999.81; parent_net_profit_yoy=-30.08%; deduct_profit=304616592.20; gross_margin=4.30%; net_margin=1.06%; ROE=9.49%; OCF=-47652567.66.
20231231: revenue=11267690707.79; revenue_yoy=-18.19%; parent_net_profit=377663889.55; parent_net_profit_yoy=20.37%; deduct_profit=304525030.64; gross_margin=5.80%; net_margin=3.33%; ROE=16.63%; OCF=711647912.88.
20221231: revenue=13772303928.65; revenue_yoy=49.61%; parent_net_profit=313747092.65; parent_net_profit_yoy=40.15%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=-680573485.45.
20211231: revenue=9205693338.55; revenue_yoy=3376.71%; parent_net_profit=223869230.88; parent_net_profit_yoy=247.76%; deduct_profit=162634759.29; gross_margin=3.87%; net_margin=2.41%; ROE=15.49%; OCF=-110428260.94.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=23764565686.39; parent_net_profit=1327415593.91; single_quarter_revenue=23764565686.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1327415593.91.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=26399539611.22; parent_net_profit=359337839.77; single_quarter_revenue=9276368798.18; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=201505511.71.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=17123170813.04; parent_net_profit=157832328.06; single_quarter_revenue=9217365163.75; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=141103847.78.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=7905805649.29; parent_net_profit=16728480.28; single_quarter_revenue=7905805649.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=16728480.28.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=16510174509.38; parent_net_profit=364307726.97; single_quarter_revenue=8703969764.69; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=207967017.99.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=7806204744.69; parent_net_profit=156340708.98; single_quarter_revenue=5503537202.80; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=142242493.90.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=2302667541.89; parent_net_profit=14098215.08; single_quarter_revenue=2302667541.89; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=14098215.08.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=7634510283.29; parent_net_profit=216775688.06; single_quarter_revenue=3302008378.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=40233209.97.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.98; non-recurring effect=23634968.28.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=1.99; inventory growth=143.93%; receivable growth=258.55%.
Inventory=6970814906.34; receivables=3850832039.62; debt ratio=75.40%; interest-bearing debt=3789537923.65; cash coverage=1.68.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=44.79multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=152.59multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=17.10multiple; PS_TTM=1.63multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=44.79multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=38.95multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=63.99multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 香农芯创: 香农芯创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=153.68; MA5/10/20/60/120=197.17/223.01/255.01/210.82/180.30.
20/60/120/250-day high=325.82/325.82/325.82/325.82; low=147.09/147.09/121.95/32.70.
drawdown=-52.83%; volume_percentile=72.80%; RSI14=19.42; ATR14=29.15; volatility20=7.47%.
support=147.09; resistance=325.82.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 15.16% | 8634136.86 | 4424.60 | 0.05% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 4424.60 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

香农芯创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
香农芯创 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
香农芯创 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
香农芯创 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=香农芯创: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=香农芯创: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=香农芯创: 香农芯创 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=186.39.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

香农芯创: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300475_香农芯创_20260722