300456 赛微电子 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=赛微电子; 证券代码=300456.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=IC设计服务、MEMS纯代工、其他收入、半导体设备；产品/服务=IC设计服务, MEMS纯代工, 其他收入, 半导体设备。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的IC设计服务、MEMS纯代工、其他收入、半导体设备业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20150514；上市年限=11.19；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

IC设计服务: revenue=69730562.41; profit=14413109.70.
MEMS纯代工: revenue=684099670.59; profit=258982687.81.
其他收入: revenue=46650479.93; profit=12060896.53.
半导体设备: revenue=23625221.25; profit=7106719.68.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=824105934.18; revenue_yoy=-31.59%; parent_net_profit=1473454069.63; parent_net_profit_yoy=-966.77%; deduct_profit=-341950113.37; gross_margin=35.50%; net_margin=168.48%; ROE=25.28%; OCF=-13906760.08.
20241231: revenue=1204715636.91; revenue_yoy=-7.31%; parent_net_profit=-169994109.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=-264.07%; deduct_profit=-190715861.54; gross_margin=35.11%; net_margin=-21.19%; ROE=-3.37%; OCF=355594512.77.
20231231: revenue=1299682668.54; revenue_yoy=65.39%; parent_net_profit=103613168.56; parent_net_profit_yoy=-241.24%; deduct_profit=8153452.64; gross_margin=29.22%; net_margin=5.54%; ROE=2.04%; OCF=144390831.67.
20221231: revenue=785815701.59; revenue_yoy=-15.37%; parent_net_profit=-73361142.70; parent_net_profit_yoy=-135.66%; deduct_profit=-227909245.60; gross_margin=31.18%; net_margin=-18.99%; ROE=-1.46%; OCF=-73804484.36.
20211231: revenue=928547013.90; revenue_yoy=21.38%; parent_net_profit=205727463.64; parent_net_profit_yoy=2.30%; deduct_profit=35856216.12; gross_margin=45.59%; net_margin=20.09%; ROE=5.04%; OCF=103579004.06.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=98542482.24; parent_net_profit=-49099019.94; single_quarter_revenue=98542482.24; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-49099019.94.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=681915619.96; parent_net_profit=1575819646.84; single_quarter_revenue=111819836.83; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1576469980.20.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=570095783.13; parent_net_profit=-650333.36; single_quarter_revenue=306083480.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-3292453.12.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=264012302.74; parent_net_profit=2642119.76; single_quarter_revenue=264012302.74; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=2642119.76.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=825225215.60; parent_net_profit=-117769995.23; single_quarter_revenue=273874160.41; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-75102137.93.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=551351055.19; parent_net_profit=-42667857.30; single_quarter_revenue=281300094.11; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-31008064.02.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=270050961.08; parent_net_profit=-11659793.28; single_quarter_revenue=270050961.08; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-11659793.28.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=909443259.70; parent_net_profit=12256365.57; single_quarter_revenue=512535524.22; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=39697163.03.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=1.01; non-recurring effect=321484.80.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=3.06; inventory growth=-33.98%; receivable growth=-42.63%.
Inventory=306659021.88; receivables=293888240.90; debt ratio=21.32%; interest-bearing debt=1413935473.42; cash coverage=1.40.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=15.68multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=15.13multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.36multiple; PS_TTM=33.84multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=15.68multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=13.63multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=22.40multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 赛微电子: 赛微电子 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

分时结构未纳入本次裁决。
涨跌停概率模型仅作辅助背景，不作为本次深度报告硬门禁。
bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=28.48; MA5/10/20/60/120=32.41/35.50/38.32/43.75/47.39.
20/60/120/250-day high=46.30/58.93/60.00/68.50; low=27.35/27.35/27.35/16.56.
drawdown=-58.42%; volume_percentile=16.00%; RSI14=20.72; ATR14=3.33; volatility20=5.01%.
support=27.35; resistance=46.30.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 6.88% | 1099328.54 | 14520.13 | 1.32% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 14520.13 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

赛微电子 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
赛微电子 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
赛微电子 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
赛微电子 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=赛微电子: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=赛微电子: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=赛微电子: 赛微电子 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=31.20.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

赛微电子: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300456_赛微电子_20260722