300390 天华新能 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 等确认.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=天华新能; 证券代码=300390.SZ; 板块=CHINEXT；市场=创业板。
行业=锂盐 / 新能源材料；主营分部=其他业务、医疗器械、锂电材料、防静电超净技术产品；产品/服务=其他业务, 医疗器械, 锂电材料, 防静电超净技术产品。
商业模式=锂盐及新能源材料；产业链定位=锂盐 / 新能源材料相关的其他业务、医疗器械、锂电材料、防静电超净技术产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20140731；上市年限=11.97；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=锂盐, 新能源材料, 锂电产业链；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=93624368.01; profit=42978494.12.
医疗器械: revenue=271834927.17; profit=136647151.22.
锂电材料: revenue=6625765406.75; profit=802855867.31.
防静电超净技术产品: revenue=557601402.61; profit=113299711.76.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=7548826104.54; revenue_yoy=14.23%; parent_net_profit=402189233.13; parent_net_profit_yoy=-52.55%; deduct_profit=150340015.73; gross_margin=14.52%; net_margin=5.94%; ROE=3.54%; OCF=-321825657.49.
20241231: revenue=6608250041.33; revenue_yoy=-36.87%; parent_net_profit=847645088.60; parent_net_profit_yoy=-48.91%; deduct_profit=440822472.33; gross_margin=22.57%; net_margin=15.48%; ROE=7.28%; OCF=1436184370.21.
20231231: revenue=10467716682.13; revenue_yoy=-38.54%; parent_net_profit=1659076244.79; parent_net_profit_yoy=-74.81%; deduct_profit=1376614343.13; gross_margin=27.91%; net_margin=20.22%; ROE=14.02%; OCF=4172340575.03.
20221231: revenue=17030454825.98; revenue_yoy=401.26%; parent_net_profit=6585794876.54; parent_net_profit_yoy=623.16%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=6393599091.03.
20211231: revenue=3397557862.27; revenue_yoy=158.73%; parent_net_profit=910697235.61; parent_net_profit_yoy=218.44%; deduct_profit=860070322.78; gross_margin=51.10%; net_margin=36.82%; ROE=40.87%; OCF=180482013.62.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=3200150765.28; parent_net_profit=968906491.73; single_quarter_revenue=3200150765.28; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=968906491.73.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=5570927412.27; parent_net_profit=32865590.54; single_quarter_revenue=2113144464.43; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=188553020.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=3457782947.84; parent_net_profit=-155687429.46; single_quarter_revenue=1770160622.33; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-158946198.18.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1687622325.51; parent_net_profit=3258768.72; single_quarter_revenue=1687622325.51; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=3258768.72.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=5452775594.77; parent_net_profit=923317664.79; single_quarter_revenue=1739581121.78; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=88429696.45.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=3713194472.99; parent_net_profit=834887968.34; single_quarter_revenue=1958839983.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=332882839.16.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1754354489.87; parent_net_profit=502005129.18; single_quarter_revenue=1754354489.87; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=502005129.18.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=8910441366.29; parent_net_profit=1821603774.48; single_quarter_revenue=2268885111.55; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=447149713.31.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.98; non-recurring effect=23187556.27.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.19; inventory growth=15.88%; receivable growth=66.93%.
Inventory=2693158326.05; receivables=616331318.13; debt ratio=34.68%; interest-bearing debt=6906548372.68; cash coverage=0.72.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=33.90multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=115.30multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.76multiple; PS_TTM=5.12multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=33.90multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=29.48multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=48.43multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 天华新能: 锂盐价格下行 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=锂盐 / 新能源材料; cycle drivers=锂盐价格, 下游电池需求, 产能利用率, 成本曲线.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
天齐锂业: comparability=1.0; match=锂资源与锂盐价格周期暴露可比; mismatch=none.
赣锋锂业: comparability=1.0; match=锂资源及锂盐产业链可比; mismatch=none.
盛新锂能: comparability=1.0; match=锂盐生产及价格周期暴露可比; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=53.33; MA5/10/20/60/120=58.80/67.02/79.36/88.17/71.67.
20/60/120/250-day high=100.98/119.06/119.06/119.06; low=51.99/51.99/42.89/19.00.
drawdown=-55.21%; volume_percentile=61.60%; RSI14=13.57; ATR14=6.88; volatility20=6.61%.
support=51.99; resistance=100.98.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 4.67% | 2525801.89 | 31358.99 | 1.24% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 31358.99 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=锂盐价格; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=下游电池需求; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=产能利用率; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=成本曲线; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

天华新能 specific risk: 锂盐价格下行; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
天华新能 specific risk: 下游需求波动; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
天华新能 specific risk: 产能释放; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
天华新能 specific risk: 现金流与应收风险; invalidate the related business-chain conclusion if verified adverse evidence appears.
天华新能 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
天华新能 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
天华新能 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
天华新能 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=天华新能: 锂盐价格 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=天华新能: 锂盐价格 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=天华新能: 锂盐价格下行 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=57.04.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

天华新能: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

300390_天华新能_20260722