002463 沪电股份 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 优先复核.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=沪电股份; 证券代码=002463.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=企业通讯市场板、工业设备板及其他、房屋销售收入、汽车板、物业费收入；产品/服务=企业通讯市场板, 工业设备板及其他, 房屋销售收入, 汽车板, 物业费收入, 租金收入, 销售材料。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的企业通讯市场板、工业设备板及其他、房屋销售收入、汽车板、物业费收入业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100818；上市年限=15.92；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=PCB, AI服务器PCB；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

企业通讯市场板: revenue=14656300288.00; profit=5815649623.00.
工业设备板及其他: revenue=442428873.00; profit=186255400.00.
房屋销售收入: revenue=3418974.00; profit=782809.00.
汽车板: revenue=3044579100.00; profit=695285074.00.
物业费收入: revenue=345756.00; profit=-7572.00.
租金收入: revenue=2867945.00; profit=2139760.00.
销售材料: revenue=795279649.00; profit=20818267.00.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=18945220585.00; revenue_yoy=42.00%; parent_net_profit=3822306272.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=47.74%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=3871967792.00.
20241231: revenue=13341541440.00; revenue_yoy=49.26%; parent_net_profit=2587236693.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=71.05%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2325184965.00.
20231231: revenue=8938309250.00; revenue_yoy=7.23%; parent_net_profit=1512538227.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=11.09%; deduct_profit=1408380964.00; gross_margin=31.17%; net_margin=16.66%; ROE=16.76%; OCF=2243311100.00.
20221231: revenue=8336030158.00; revenue_yoy=12.36%; parent_net_profit=1361574992.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=28.03%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1565768541.00.
20211231: revenue=7418710047.00; revenue_yoy=-0.55%; parent_net_profit=1063500828.00; parent_net_profit_yoy=-20.80%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1410432087.00.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=6214156406.00; parent_net_profit=1242081367.00; single_quarter_revenue=6214156406.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1242081367.00.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=13512390231.00; parent_net_profit=2717617995.00; single_quarter_revenue=5018518348.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=1034837048.00.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=8493871883.00; parent_net_profit=1682780947.00; single_quarter_revenue=4456244556.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=920315547.00.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=4037627327.00; parent_net_profit=762465400.00; single_quarter_revenue=4037627327.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=762465400.00.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=9010914022.00; parent_net_profit=1848389385.00; single_quarter_revenue=3586807892.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=707559126.00.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=5424106130.00; parent_net_profit=1140830259.00; single_quarter_revenue=2840070699.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=626018258.00.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=2584035431.00; parent_net_profit=514812001.00; single_quarter_revenue=2584035431.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=514812001.00.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=6082456911.00; parent_net_profit=953082264.00; single_quarter_revenue=2318983449.00; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=460476355.00.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=INSUFFICIENT_SERIES; net margin trend=INSUFFICIENT_SERIES; ROE trend=INSUFFICIENT_SERIES; deduct profit ratio=0.94; non-recurring effect=79399432.00.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.41; inventory growth=101.69%; receivable growth=60.17%.
Inventory=4913409150.00; receivables=6476447190.00; debt ratio=48.64%; interest-bearing debt=6353599885.00; cash coverage=0.69.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=54.84multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=61.72multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=14.05multiple; PS_TTM=11.17multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=54.84multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=47.69multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=78.35multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 沪电股份: 沪电股份 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=PCB_CORE; cycle drivers=PCB, AI服务器PCB.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深南电A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=115.02; MA5/10/20/60/120=130.78/130.32/136.05/125.26/102.06.
20/60/120/250-day high=158.20/158.20/158.20/158.20; low=115.02/98.30/64.98/45.92.
drawdown=-27.29%; volume_percentile=85.20%; RSI14=29.60; ATR14=11.76; volatility20=5.90%.
support=115.02; resistance=158.20.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 6.59% | 11315658.42 | 39166.24 | 0.35% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 39166.24 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=PCB; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=AI服务器PCB; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

沪电股份 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
沪电股份 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
沪电股份 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
沪电股份 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=沪电股份: PCB improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=沪电股份: PCB remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=沪电股份: 沪电股份 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=127.87.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

沪电股份: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002463_沪电股份_20260722