002409 雅克科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=雅克科技; 证券代码=002409.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=光刻胶业务、其他业务、化工材料、半导体、特种气体业务；产品/服务=光刻胶业务, 其他业务, 化工材料, 半导体, 特种气体业务, 设备租赁。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的光刻胶业务、其他业务、化工材料、半导体、特种气体业务业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20100525；上市年限=16.16；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

光刻胶业务: revenue=1959659640.36; profit=327718349.67.
其他业务: revenue=191371249.03; profit=21213843.57.
化工材料: revenue=2658122479.60; profit=791388081.11.
半导体: revenue=2702932498.91; profit=1121415276.54.
特种气体业务: revenue=417368463.88; profit=126115116.48.
设备租赁: revenue=682014808.02; profit=278043515.20.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=8611469139.80; revenue_yoy=25.49%; parent_net_profit=1000316537.26; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.77%; deduct_profit=953924478.22; gross_margin=30.96%; net_margin=11.96%; ROE=13.27%; OCF=1031422205.22.
20241231: revenue=6862316073.26; revenue_yoy=44.84%; parent_net_profit=871582839.83; parent_net_profit_yoy=50.41%; deduct_profit=900714844.80; gross_margin=31.59%; net_margin=12.27%; ROE=12.35%; OCF=603870536.31.
20231231: revenue=4737773229.71; revenue_yoy=11.24%; parent_net_profit=579480425.58; parent_net_profit_yoy=10.53%; deduct_profit=558186657.43; gross_margin=31.33%; net_margin=12.67%; ROE=8.65%; OCF=589080703.52.
20221231: revenue=4259185610.35; revenue_yoy=12.61%; parent_net_profit=524262870.84; parent_net_profit_yoy=56.61%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=676231372.91.
20211231: revenue=3782309858.83; revenue_yoy=66.40%; parent_net_profit=334750112.85; parent_net_profit_yoy=-18.98%; deduct_profit=348007635.73; gross_margin=25.76%; net_margin=9.02%; ROE=6.26%; OCF=320457983.45.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1972760765.04; parent_net_profit=266687960.67; single_quarter_revenue=1972760765.04; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=266687960.67.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=6466693997.58; parent_net_profit=796127101.99; single_quarter_revenue=2173694046.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=273339339.90.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=4292999950.68; parent_net_profit=522787762.09; single_quarter_revenue=2175158586.75; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=262518106.36.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=2117841363.93; parent_net_profit=260269655.73; single_quarter_revenue=2117841363.93; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=260269655.73.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=4999118443.66; parent_net_profit=748766767.61; single_quarter_revenue=1742506116.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=229229865.33.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=3256612327.27; parent_net_profit=519536902.28; single_quarter_revenue=1638412169.20; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=273640338.37.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1618200158.07; parent_net_profit=245896563.91; single_quarter_revenue=1618200158.07; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=245896563.91.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=3541739094.07; parent_net_profit=480600385.97; single_quarter_revenue=1219120194.82; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=139235020.91.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.92; non-recurring effect=22302336.45.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.16; inventory growth=2.29%; receivable growth=30.69%.
Inventory=2267919161.62; receivables=1482707431.57; debt ratio=35.70%; interest-bearing debt=4361003187.14; cash coverage=0.68.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=67.86multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=68.30multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=8.43multiple; PS_TTM=8.07multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=67.86multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=59.01multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=96.95multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 雅克科技: 雅克科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=130.50; MA5/10/20/60/120=158.06/177.13/186.89/136.79/112.75.
20/60/120/250-day high=246.44/246.44/246.44/246.44; low=130.50/80.25/76.25/53.32.
drawdown=-47.05%; volume_percentile=84.40%; RSI14=21.26; ATR14=20.50; volatility20=7.09%.
support=130.50; resistance=246.44.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 10.00% | 5945087.62 | 21722.39 | 0.37% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 21722.39 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

雅克科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
雅克科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
雅克科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
雅克科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=雅克科技: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=雅克科技: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=雅克科技: 雅克科技 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=149.27.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

雅克科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002409_雅克科技_20260722