002185 华天科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=华天科技; 证券代码=002185.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=半导体；主营分部=LED、集成电路产品；产品/服务=LED, 集成电路产品。
商业模式=半导体；产业链定位=半导体相关的LED、集成电路产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20071120；上市年限=18.67；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

LED: revenue=2688069.62; profit=-6608182.95.
集成电路产品: revenue=17211227224.17; profit=2288953182.35.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=17213915293.79; revenue_yoy=19.03%; parent_net_profit=710508576.43; parent_net_profit_yoy=15.30%; deduct_profit=200439267.39; gross_margin=13.26%; net_margin=4.68%; ROE=4.12%; OCF=3472079653.35.
20241231: revenue=14461617106.21; revenue_yoy=28.00%; parent_net_profit=616251021.39; parent_net_profit_yoy=172.29%; deduct_profit=33419406.53; gross_margin=12.07%; net_margin=4.56%; ROE=3.79%; OCF=3097973379.05.
20231231: revenue=11298245259.39; revenue_yoy=-5.10%; parent_net_profit=226323275.35; parent_net_profit_yoy=-69.98%; deduct_profit=-308146446.12; gross_margin=8.91%; net_margin=2.46%; ROE=1.43%; OCF=2411209475.02.
20221231: revenue=11905960519.12; revenue_yoy=-1.58%; parent_net_profit=753945434.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=-46.74%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=2877164434.94.
20211231: revenue=12096793328.40; revenue_yoy=44.32%; parent_net_profit=1415671366.19; parent_net_profit_yoy=101.75%; deduct_profit=1100632762.23; gross_margin=24.61%; net_margin=14.20%; ROE=12.02%; OCF=3444362299.00.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=4799534766.23; parent_net_profit=86786407.33; single_quarter_revenue=4799534766.23; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=86786407.33.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=12379789531.54; parent_net_profit=542637017.10; single_quarter_revenue=4599535005.83; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=316158475.98.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=7780254525.71; parent_net_profit=226478541.12; single_quarter_revenue=4211482498.81; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=245007189.96.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=3568772026.90; parent_net_profit=-18528648.84; single_quarter_revenue=3568772026.90; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=-18528648.84.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=10531227276.55; parent_net_profit=357041387.70; single_quarter_revenue=3813030036.33; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=134307506.23.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=6718197240.22; parent_net_profit=222733881.47; single_quarter_revenue=3612167454.21; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=165699837.05.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=3106029786.01; parent_net_profit=57034044.42; single_quarter_revenue=3106029786.01; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=57034044.42.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=8068423293.91; parent_net_profit=82872138.02; single_quarter_revenue=2979509816.22; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=19993509.70.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); non-recurring effect=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:deducted profit; periods=20260331; impact=deducted profit quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=5.59; inventory growth=51.51%; receivable growth=22.79%.
Inventory=3261598914.87; receivables=2868983323.56; debt ratio=52.21%; interest-bearing debt=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); cash coverage=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=DARB statement field:interest-bearing debt; periods=20260331; impact=interest-bearing debt quality conclusion is limited; blocks_module=NO.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=85.83multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=85.83multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=3.42multiple; PS_TTM=3.54multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=85.83multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=74.64multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=122.62multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 华天科技: 华天科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=16.85; MA5/10/20/60/120=21.03/22.18/21.66/18.01/15.73.
20/60/120/250-day high=26.81/26.81/26.81/26.81; low=16.85/12.39/11.30/9.01.
drawdown=-37.15%; volume_percentile=87.20%; RSI14=36.93; ATR14=2.24; volatility20=6.73%.
support=16.85; resistance=26.81.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 8.90% | 11693531.00 | 8558.32 | 0.07% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 8558.32 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

华天科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
华天科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
华天科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
华天科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=华天科技: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=华天科技: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=华天科技: 华天科技 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=19.57.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

华天科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002185_华天科技_20260722