002028 思源电气 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 只观察.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=思源电气; 证券代码=002028.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=电气设备；主营分部=EPC类业务、保护及自动化类业务、储能系统及元件类业务、变压器类业务、开关类业务；产品/服务=EPC类业务, 保护及自动化类业务, 储能系统及元件类业务, 变压器类业务, 开关类业务, 电力电子类业务, 租赁业务。
商业模式=电气设备；产业链定位=电气设备相关的EPC类业务、保护及自动化类业务、储能系统及元件类业务、变压器类业务、开关类业务业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20040805；上市年限=21.96；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=电网设备, 电力自动化；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

EPC类业务: revenue=2332317023.16; profit=276038683.84.
保护及自动化类业务: revenue=2542240986.82; profit=892528150.35.
储能系统及元件类业务: revenue=1531165144.30; profit=179360626.27.
变压器类业务: revenue=4633384382.40; profit=1686261026.38.
开关类业务: revenue=8935235840.30; profit=3295030428.78.
电力电子类业务: revenue=1525380833.85; profit=288016439.09.
租赁业务: revenue=39307194.50; profit=11358474.66.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=21539031405.33; revenue_yoy=39.34%; parent_net_profit=3150142665.04; parent_net_profit_yoy=53.74%; deduct_profit=2951560243.90; gross_margin=30.77%; net_margin=15.13%; ROE=22.60%; OCF=2234278513.24.
20241231: revenue=15458068522.40; revenue_yoy=24.06%; parent_net_profit=2049069550.48; parent_net_profit_yoy=31.42%; deduct_profit=1878424783.64; gross_margin=31.25%; net_margin=13.49%; ROE=18.00%; OCF=2462472228.64.
20231231: revenue=12460028391.72; revenue_yoy=18.25%; parent_net_profit=1559170409.63; parent_net_profit_yoy=27.76%; deduct_profit=1420997954.02; gross_margin=29.50%; net_margin=12.91%; ROE=15.95%; OCF=2272114969.14.
20221231: revenue=10537097608.15; revenue_yoy=21.18%; parent_net_profit=1220411207.56; parent_net_profit_yoy=1.90%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1054857918.15.
20211231: revenue=8695335076.97; revenue_yoy=17.94%; parent_net_profit=1197669571.59; parent_net_profit_yoy=28.32%; deduct_profit=1111987668.36; gross_margin=30.48%; net_margin=14.63%; ROE=16.09%; OCF=383411104.61.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=4568663867.62; parent_net_profit=549952870.75; single_quarter_revenue=4568663867.62; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=549952870.75.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=13826977185.80; parent_net_profit=2191372868.35; single_quarter_revenue=5330097998.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=898674904.69.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=8496879187.48; parent_net_profit=1292697963.66; single_quarter_revenue=5270321218.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=846198443.83.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=3226557969.19; parent_net_profit=446499519.83; single_quarter_revenue=3226557969.19; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=446499519.83.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=10407267185.30; parent_net_profit=1491370179.34; single_quarter_revenue=4241035833.92; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=604227777.62.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=6166231351.38; parent_net_profit=887142401.72; single_quarter_revenue=3508682865.49; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=523872622.60.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=2657548485.89; parent_net_profit=363269779.12; single_quarter_revenue=2657548485.89; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=363269779.12.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=8580896660.31; parent_net_profit=1148291269.88; single_quarter_revenue=3277658633.50; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=447755476.10.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.90; non-recurring effect=57429692.50.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-0.88; inventory growth=44.69%; receivable growth=35.44%.
Inventory=5030746598.53; receivables=7799346158.00; debt ratio=45.85%; interest-bearing debt=798523866.64; cash coverage=4.37.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=37.50multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=38.73multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=7.57multiple; PS_TTM=5.33multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=37.50multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=32.60multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=53.57multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 思源电气: 思源电气 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=POWER_GRID_CORE; cycle drivers=电网设备, 电力自动化.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
中国宝安: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
德赛电池: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
许继电气: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
顺钠股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
甘化科工: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
东方电子: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
新能泰山: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
和展能源: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
ST京机: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
佳电股份: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=DOWNTREND; close=151.50; MA5/10/20/60/120=154.21/156.44/165.90/186.26/197.19.
20/60/120/250-day high=205.90/232.28/239.12/239.12; low=145.29/145.29/145.29/69.92.
drawdown=-36.64%; volume_percentile=69.60%; RSI14=38.49; ATR14=11.16; volatility20=4.04%.
support=145.29; resistance=205.90.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 2.90% | 2266842.16 | 10386.85 | 0.46% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 10386.85 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=电网设备; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电力自动化; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

思源电气 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
思源电气 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
思源电气 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
思源电气 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=思源电气: 电网设备 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=思源电气: 电网设备 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=思源电气: 思源电气 risk context: 交易风险：明确承接；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 均线结构仍在修复中；资金分歧，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；先观察能否收复 MA20=164.04.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

思源电气: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002028_思源电气_20260722