002025 航天电器 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=C+.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=航天电器; 证券代码=002025.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=光通信器件、其他业务、电机与控制组件、继电器、连接器及互连一体化产品；产品/服务=光通信器件, 其他业务, 电机与控制组件, 继电器, 连接器及互连一体化产品。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的光通信器件、其他业务、电机与控制组件、继电器、连接器及互连一体化产品业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=20040726；上市年限=21.98；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

光通信器件: revenue=131746730.01; profit=34008670.61.
其他业务: revenue=105547892.11; profit=63953003.55.
电机与控制组件: revenue=1357940460.07; profit=416515798.47.
继电器: revenue=240396878.54; profit=107882355.63.
连接器及互连一体化产品: revenue=3984202412.52; profit=1158367831.05.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=5819834373.25; revenue_yoy=15.82%; parent_net_profit=182846795.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=-47.32%; deduct_profit=147143217.14; gross_margin=30.60%; net_margin=4.04%; ROE=2.80%; OCF=-613727411.11.
20241231: revenue=5024880889.72; revenue_yoy=-19.08%; parent_net_profit=347092604.61; parent_net_profit_yoy=-53.75%; deduct_profit=311278487.55; gross_margin=38.34%; net_margin=8.04%; ROE=5.45%; OCF=-258727889.40.
20231231: revenue=6209820336.41; revenue_yoy=3.16%; parent_net_profit=750480376.13; parent_net_profit_yoy=35.11%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=1642083395.27.
20221231: revenue=6019695184.60; revenue_yoy=19.49%; parent_net_profit=555443939.33; parent_net_profit_yoy=14.00%; deduct_profit=504373810.37; gross_margin=33.00%; net_margin=10.82%; ROE=10.17%; OCF=178646404.65.
20211231: revenue=5037852150.75; revenue_yoy=19.43%; parent_net_profit=487241902.15; parent_net_profit_yoy=12.37%; deduct_profit=455104022.76; gross_margin=32.62%; net_margin=11.21%; ROE=11.27%; OCF=833071532.34.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=1613999955.60; parent_net_profit=52232066.52; single_quarter_revenue=1613999955.60; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=52232066.52.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=4349012128.25; parent_net_profit=146043841.26; single_quarter_revenue=1414027032.42; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=59348642.54.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=2934985095.83; parent_net_profit=86695198.72; single_quarter_revenue=1468875440.51; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=40134079.21.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=1466109655.32; parent_net_profit=46561119.51; single_quarter_revenue=1466109655.32; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=46561119.51.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=3994746942.63; parent_net_profit=411783972.15; single_quarter_revenue=1073401041.07; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=26668519.85.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=2921345901.56; parent_net_profit=385115452.30; single_quarter_revenue=1307599311.44; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=159611368.56.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=1613746590.12; parent_net_profit=225504083.74; single_quarter_revenue=1613746590.12; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=225504083.74.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=5202912875.14; parent_net_profit=595422974.69; single_quarter_revenue=1582580087.08; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=167527987.35.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=DOWN; net margin trend=DOWN; ROE trend=DOWN; deduct profit ratio=0.86; non-recurring effect=7290707.33.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=-12.36; inventory growth=30.55%; receivable growth=23.08%.
Inventory=2416098784.00; receivables=4400281329.45; debt ratio=32.96%; interest-bearing debt=223833301.90; cash coverage=3.25.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=161.31multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=166.32multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=4.57multiple; PS_TTM=5.10multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=161.31multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=140.27multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=230.45multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 航天电器: 航天电器 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=63.58; MA5/10/20/60/120=69.03/76.06/76.03/71.55/65.51.
20/60/120/250-day high=95.88/95.88/95.88/95.88; low=56.80/56.80/48.95/40.08.
drawdown=-33.69%; volume_percentile=62.80%; RSI14=36.77; ATR14=7.84; volatility20=5.49%.
support=56.80; resistance=95.88.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 5.35% | 1461793.22 | 4358.48 | 0.30% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: 4358.48 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

航天电器 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
航天电器 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
航天电器 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
航天电器 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=航天电器: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=航天电器: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=航天电器: 航天电器 risk context: 交易风险：短线趋势；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；短线回补但持续性不足；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=67.55.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

航天电器: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

002025_航天电器_20260722