000021 深科技 Deep Research

当前结论

Research conclusion: 继续观察.
Trade conclusion: 短线回避.
Data trade date: 20260721; final status: PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; outbound/order permission: NO.

较上一交易日变化

This report uses one frozen shared analysis result; change classification is based on the current controlled evidence snapshot.

评分、风险等级和交易定位

Core data gate=PASS; report completeness=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; research priority=B-.

公司和主营业务画像

公司=深科技; 证券代码=000021.SZ; 板块=SZ_MAIN；市场=主板。
行业=元器件；主营分部=其他业务、存储半导体业务、计量智能终端、高端制造；产品/服务=其他业务, 存储半导体业务, 计量智能终端, 高端制造。
商业模式=元器件；产业链定位=元器件相关的其他业务、存储半导体业务、计量智能终端、高端制造业务环节；收入构成状态=DISCLOSED_FINA_MAINBZ。
上市日期=19940202；上市年限=32.46；信息完整性=COMPLETE。
业务标签=半导体设计, 电子元器件；数据来源=stock_basic, fina_mainbz。

主营业务与收入结构

其他业务: revenue=100665718.63; profit=36584267.68.
存储半导体业务: revenue=4090725850.30; profit=834709932.58.
计量智能终端: revenue=3020599484.63; profit=1185826059.15.
高端制造: revenue=8535402038.94; profit=828404526.11.

多期财务趋势

Annual series (ANNUAL):
20251231: revenue=15747393092.50; revenue_yoy=6.21%; parent_net_profit=1135679007.05; parent_net_profit_yoy=22.07%; deduct_profit=967930805.00; gross_margin=18.32%; net_margin=9.19%; ROE=9.10%; OCF=1764618556.72.
20241231: revenue=14827166508.53; revenue_yoy=3.94%; parent_net_profit=930345572.18; parent_net_profit_yoy=44.33%; deduct_profit=900577554.08; gross_margin=16.98%; net_margin=7.33%; ROE=8.15%; OCF=2428401907.74.
20231231: revenue=14264648386.89; revenue_yoy=-11.50%; parent_net_profit=644601244.53; parent_net_profit_yoy=-2.19%; deduct_profit=673248839.38; gross_margin=16.65%; net_margin=5.78%; ROE=6.06%; OCF=2002232683.50.
20221231: revenue=16118375162.38; revenue_yoy=-2.24%; parent_net_profit=659052805.91; parent_net_profit_yoy=-15.00%; deduct_profit=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); gross_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); net_margin=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); ROE=NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable); OCF=895695279.53.
20211231: revenue=16488253175.97; revenue_yoy=10.16%; parent_net_profit=775394154.82; parent_net_profit_yoy=-9.54%; deduct_profit=307525753.47; gross_margin=9.64%; net_margin=5.06%; ROE=8.90%; OCF=867605722.02.
Quarterly series (QUARTERLY_CUMULATIVE and SINGLE_QUARTER):
20260331 cumulative: revenue=3723775220.39; parent_net_profit=242178267.01; single_quarter_revenue=3723775220.39; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=242178267.01.
20250930 cumulative: revenue=11277843807.83; parent_net_profit=755729275.09; single_quarter_revenue=3538191171.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=303911865.33.
20250630 cumulative: revenue=7739652636.54; parent_net_profit=451817409.76; single_quarter_revenue=4375014416.40; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=272888240.27.
20250331 cumulative: revenue=3364638220.14; parent_net_profit=178929169.49; single_quarter_revenue=3364638220.14; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=178929169.49.
20240930 cumulative: revenue=10851685615.18; parent_net_profit=661378001.23; single_quarter_revenue=3797121474.22; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=301061097.80.
20240630 cumulative: revenue=7054564140.96; parent_net_profit=360316903.43; single_quarter_revenue=3928185123.29; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=238523081.84.
20240331 cumulative: revenue=3126379017.67; parent_net_profit=121793821.59; single_quarter_revenue=3126379017.67; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=121793821.59.
20230930 cumulative: revenue=10971402550.20; parent_net_profit=446520821.17; single_quarter_revenue=3230833596.33; single_quarter_parent_net_profit=149682473.89.

盈利能力

Gross margin trend=UP; net margin trend=UP; ROE trend=UP; deduct profit ratio=0.59; non-recurring effect=99412789.09.

现金流与资产质量

OCF/parent profit=0.47; inventory growth=9.03%; receivable growth=7.70%.
Inventory=2867407037.89; receivables=4239768356.55; debt ratio=41.68%; interest-bearing debt=6230511650.72; cash coverage=1.30.

估值分析

PE_TTM_ACTUAL=50.75multiple; PE_STATIC_LATEST_ANNUAL=53.58multiple; PE_FORWARD_FORECAST=NOT_AVAILABLE (NO_STRUCTURED_FORECAST_PROFIT); PB_LATEST=4.55multiple; PS_TTM=3.78multiple.
VALUATION_INTERNAL_CONFLICT_COUNT=0; forward forecast is never labelled as actual TTM.
Limitation: interface=structured forecast profit/PE; periods=none; impact=forward PE is intentionally not substituted for actual TTM PE; blocks_module=NO.

估值情景

CURRENT_PROFIT: premise=latest actual TTM profit; PE sensitivity=50.75multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
NORMALIZED_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit normalized only as sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=44.13multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.
CYCLE_DOWNTURN_PROFIT: premise=actual TTM profit stress sensitivity, not a forecast; PE sensitivity=72.50multiple; actual-TTM-only=YES.

基本面核心矛盾

Bear case / counterevidence: 深科技: 深科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

行业与主线

Industry=SEMICONDUCTOR_DESIGN_CORE; cycle drivers=半导体设计, 电子元器件.

直接同行对比

DIRECT_PEER_UNIVERSE:
深华发A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深纺织A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深天马A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
深圳华强: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
TCL科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华塑控股: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
华映科技: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
风华高科: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
盈方微: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
京东方A: comparability=1.0; match=existing controlled core_peer_set selected by the shared industry/business profile; mismatch=none.
EXTENDED_PEER_UNIVERSE:
No extended peer context is available.

技术面

bars=320/250; trend=RANGE_OR_TRANSITION; close=35.14; MA5/10/20/60/120=43.45/48.87/52.10/41.58/35.80.
20/60/120/250-day high=66.20/66.20/66.20/66.20; low=35.11/28.00/25.48/18.15.
drawdown=-46.92%; volume_percentile=81.20%; RSI14=17.64; ATR14=5.53; volatility20=7.20%.
support=35.11; resistance=66.20.

资金流和市场情绪

| Date | Pct change | Turnover | Main net amount | Main net / turnover | |---|---:|---:|---:|---:| | 20260721 | 9.99% | 6584954.74 | -35589.79 | -0.54% |

1/3/5/10/20-day main net amount: -35589.79 / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable) / NOT_AVAILABLE (controlled source unavailable).
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=ten-day fund-flow table is partial; blocks_module=NO.
Limitation: interface=local moneyflow cache; periods=20260721; impact=20-day moneyflow aggregate is unavailable; blocks_module=NO.

龙虎榜

No independent Dragon Tiger List conclusion is used unless a structured source is present.

事件与公告证据

No structured announcement item is available.
Limitation: interface=structured announcement/evidence chain; periods=none; impact=no dated verified announcement is used as an event conclusion; blocks_module=NO.

催化与验证点

catalyst=半导体设计; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.
catalyst=电子元器件; validation_time=NEXT_DISCLOSURE_OR_OPERATING_DATA; validation_data=company disclosure or audited operating/financial data; conditions=named industry driver improves or remains verified; invalidation=named industry driver weakens or lacks verified evidence.

风险与反证

深科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。
深科技 risk context: 行业风险：板块强度和核心股表现必须与 peer_universe_id 同口径复核。
深科技 risk context: 估值风险：估值样本不足时不输出强判断
深科技 risk context: 事件证伪风险：财务数据更新需要公告标题、披露日、公告日和报告期补齐后复核。

情景推演

Bull case=深科技: 半导体设计 improves and controlled financial/market evidence remains aligned.; base case=深科技: 半导体设计 remains within the latest controlled evidence range; continue observation only.; bear case=深科技: 深科技 risk context: 交易风险：异常分歧；若资金与价格继续分歧，交易动作维持观察。 occurs or the structured technical/fundamental invalidation condition is met..

交易计划与观察纪律

Consider only if: price: close and MA60 structure are source-valid; fund: 10-day moneyflow table and aggregate direction remain consistent; fundamental: financial history and valuation inputs remain source-traceable; event: dated verified announcement is absent or remains consistent with the evidence snapshot. Invalidation: 弱势调整；资金持续派发，今天不能证明承接；当前已低于 MA20，需重新收复 MA20 才能修复中期结构；未收复 MA10 前，只按弱修复观察；第一步看能否收复 MA5=40.68.

仓位与执行约束

Research output only. It does not send, publish, trade, connect to a broker, or place orders.

数据状态

CORE_DATA_GATE=PASS; FINANCIAL_ANALYSIS_GATE=PASS; VALUATION_GATE=PASS; TECHNICAL_GATE=PASS; FUND_FLOW_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; EVENT_EVIDENCE_GATE=NOT_APPLICABLE; REPORT_COMPLETENESS_GATE=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; FINAL_REPORT_STATUS=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS.

一句话总结

深科技: research status=PASS_WITH_LIMITATIONS; continue only under the structured evidence and invalidation conditions above.

免责声明

Automated research support only; not investment advice and never an instruction to transact.

000021_深科技_20260722